BANK EXEC ADDRESSES ECONOMY

The U.S. is in the middle of a slow recovery says Phillip E. Peters.

"Economists are looking at a new White House administration, but many feel that there would be little change in the economy over the next four years, regardless of who was president," said Peters, who is executive vice president and chief investment officer for Boatmen's Bancshares, Inc.

Peters was in Cape Girardeau Tuesday to discuss the economy with customers and employees of Boatmen's Bank of Cape Girardeau.

"We travel to various Boatmen's Banks to discuss our outlook for the economy where we've been and where we are now," said Peters, who has more than 20 years experience in bank investments, funds management and public finance. "And, right now, we feel we're in the middle of a slow recovery."

Prior to joining Boatmen's in January of 1990, Peters was a principal with Carolina Securities Corporation, a Raleigh, N.C.-based member of the New York Stock Exchange, where he was responsible for the firm's fixed income underwriting, trading and institutional sales activities.

He previously was associated with Mellon Bank in Pittsburgh and Citizens and Southern Georgia Corporation in Atlanta.

Peters said lower interest rates are inducing consumers, corporations and government to reduce their debt load.

"The foundation is here for a slow recovery," he said. "Some corporations have down-sized their operations but kept production up by replacing some people with technology.

"Corporations and consumers are refinancing some of the debts they built up during the high-rate interest decade of the 1980s," he added.

The average rate of recovery during 1991 and 1992 is in the 2-3 three percent range.

"This may not seem like much when you consider the average rate of 6 percent recovery from recession during the 1940s," said Peters. "But, when you average all the recovery rates from 1946 through 1985, the average is closer to two percent than six percent.

"We feel at this point that the economy is doing as well as can be expected," he said.

Peters said the rate of 2.7 percent for the third quarter this year "was higher than expected," and will be over 2 percent even after adjustments. He said that under the new president, the economy could grow a lot faster.

"Bill Clinton is considered a fiscal moderate, much more so than the Carter Democratic administration of 1976-80," Peters said. "But, there's some fear that the leadership in Congress is still liberal.

"If the interest rates start to go higher, it could close some of the growth," he added. "But, the global marketplace can still impose some fiscal discipline on things, and we feel the growth factor will continue near its present pace."