AUGUST MAY BE COOL AND WET; 90-DAY OUTLOOK SUGGESTS WARM FALL

The National Weather Service 30-day outlook for August suggests a change to cooler and wetter than normal weather for the Cape Girardeau area. If so, it will be a welcome change from the hot, dry weather of the past several months.

But the weather service's 90-day weather outlook, through the end of October, indicates warmer than normal temperatures, with near average precipitation for Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois.

Meanwhile, for the sixth consecutive month this year, the average monthly temperature in July was above the long-term average.

Al Robertson of the Earth Science Department at Southeast Missouri State University, reported the July average was 80.9 degrees, up 1.5 degrees from the 46-year, long-term average of 79.4 degrees.

Robertson said the only time this year when the monthly average was below normal was in January, when it was .7 tenths of a degree below the long-term average of 32.7 degrees.

Robertson said the average for February, 41.2 degrees, was 3.8 degrees above normal. The March average was 50.9 degrees, 4.1 degrees above the long-term average. In April, the average temperature was 61.3 degrees, up nearly 3 (2.9) degrees over the long-term average.

In May, the average temperature was 72.2 degrees, up 5.2 degrees from the seasonal average. The June average was 78.6 degrees, up 2.6 degrees from the 46-year average.

Robertson said the warm weather this year is not due to the so-called "greenhouse effect" or "global warming effect". Instead, he said, it is a cyclical trend that can be traced back to the 1930s. "It is well documented the farther west you go toward Kansas and Oklahoma," he said.

"The records show the alternate decades have been generally hotter or cooler than normal. The same is true, to some extent in this area, except it's not quite so obvious."

The high for the month, 99 degrees, occurred on July 1. So far, it also ranks as the hottest day of this year, Robertson said. The low for the month was a pleasant, spring-like 59 degrees, on July 30.

"July started off hot, then moderated toward the middle of the month. By the end of the month, it really cooled down," he said.

The July 10-day temperature averages:

- July 1-10, 83.5 degrees, up 4.6 degrees from the long-term average of 78.9 degrees.

- July 11-20, 81.3 degrees, up 1.5 degrees from the long-term average of 79.8 degrees.

- July 21-31, 78.3 degrees, down 1.3 degrees from the long-term average of 79.6 degrees.

"We had 21 days in July when the high was 90 degrees, or above," Robertson said. "The cooling trend between the 23rd and 25th was helped by several rainy days with cloud cover that kept the afternoon high lower than usual."

Precipitation in July was on the deficit side, but not as bad as in June. Robertson said the last time the monthly precipitation total was above normal was in April.

There were eight rainy days in July, with total rainfall for the month amounting to 2.93 inches. That's only .2 tenths of an inch below the seasonal average of 3.13 inches, he said.

But Robertson said additional rainfall is needed in the area. He said most of the topsoil moisture is now depleted.

Robertson said the 46-year average temperature for August is 77.4 degrees. Last year, the average was 76.2 degrees, down 1.2 degrees.

"It actually was cooler during the first part of the month than it was during the last 10 days," Robertson said.

Average rainfall for August at Cape Girardeau is 3.80 inches. Last year, only 1.61 inches fell. Of that total, Robertson said 1.05 inches fell on Aug. 4. "You can see it was a very dry month last year. There were only seven rainy days in the month," he said.

For the year through July 31, Robertson said precipitation at the airport totals 23.64 inches. That's 3.13 inches below the long-term average of 26.99 inches.

Although 100-degree temperatures frequently occur in June and July, Robertson said they are not uncommon in August in the Cape Girardeau area, and have occurred as late in the year as early September.

In 1988, there were four consecutive days (Aug.15-18) of 100-degree temperatures: 104, 102, 102, and 100 degrees. Three of the four (Aug. 15-17) were all-time record highs for the date, he said.

Robertson said a record high of 101 degrees occurred on Sept. 6, 1954. "The summer that year was a very hot one," he added.

There were no 100-degree or higher days during the summers of 1989 or 1990, according to local weather records.

The warm and dry weather this week should continue through today, but there is a chance of rain and cooler temperatures by the weekend.

The weather service said there is a good chance of thunderstorms on Saturday, with cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. Highs Saturday will be in the mid-90s, cooling to the mid-80s by Sunday and Monday. The low temperature will be in the 70s on Saturday, dropping to the low- to mid-60s by Sunday and Monday.