AREA MAY GET FIRST FREEZING PRECIPITATION OF THE YEAR

La Nina may or may not be responsible for the region's above-average temperatures and scarce precipitation this winter, but the recent cold spell has been caused by much more customary forces, meteorologists say.

The digit-freezing temperatures that have swept across much of the country, especially the Northeast, during the past week are the result of a normal winter weather pattern, says Jeff Hovis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Paducah, Ky.

"Basically this happens every winter, mainly in the East. A trough has developed, and it has allowed cold weather to come down out of Canada."

Rain, freezing rain and sleet are forecast this morning, with sleet turning to rain as the day progresses. The chance of precipitation is 80 percent.

The high today is expected to be 40 to 45 degrees. Temperatures tonight are expected to drop to around 30 degrees.

The abnormal cooling of the Pacific Ocean known as La Nina may be responsible in part for the warm temperatures and lack of rain that preceded the current conditions. But, Hovis says, "Being in the middle of the country it's hard to nail down the effect La Nina has had on the weather."

La Nina doesn't make his job harder, said Hovis, whose office provides one-to-five-day forecasts. "It would affect long-term forecasts, the climate research people."

Winter temperature dips always affect organizations like the Salvation Army, which provides help with emergency housing, utility payments and food.

Most often the Salvation Army provides lodging to people who have been evicted, involved in a family quarrel or have an exparte order against them, the Army's Maj. Robert Gauthier said. "They have nowhere to go."

But recently the Salvation Army has seen more people in need of longer-term housing.

"We've had some really unusual cases lately," Gauthier said. Among them were husband and wife truckers who needed temporary lodging when their semi caught fire in Cape Girardeau. The Salvation Army arranged permanent lodging for them after the trucker's employer discharged him because of the fire.

"We were able to find him some work and get them set up in an apartment," Gauthier said.

The number of motel stays over the past year has doubled, Gauthier said. "I can't explain that."

He anticipates more of the same if night-time temperatures remain frigid. The flu season also has increased requests for prescription medicines, especially expensive antibiotics.

The Salvation Army's recent Tree of Lights campaign is $18,000 short of the $220,000 goal set by the organization this year. Donations can be mailed to the Salvation Army at P.O. Box 802, Cape Girardeau, Mo. 63701.

Snow is forecast for the northeastern part of Missouri today, with rain, freezing rain or sleet predicted everywhere else.

Hovis said Southeast Missouri remains in a mild drought, a situation which dates from last summer. Precipitation is expected to be normal in February but below normal through April. Temperatures are predicted to be below normal in February and normal through April.

Hovis said the cold weather will continue, with warmer temperatures ala La Nina expected to begin returning around Jan. 30.