Arafat, Sharon face difficult choices to war

JERUSALEM -- The wave of attacks against Israelis confronts Yasser Arafat with a wrenching choice: Act swiftly and decisively against the violent extremists who have flourished during 14 months of fighting, or risk facing the full wrath of Israel.

Reining in the Hamas and Islamic Jihad groups would require the arrest of hundreds of militants and could lead to fighting between Arafat loyalists and the militants and their growing numbers of supporters -- as well as elements of Arafat's own increasingly radicalized Fatah movement.

Palestinian officials insist Arafat wants to return to peace talks and a cease-fire. But so far he has refrained from an all-out campaign against the militants and rejected Israel's claims -- echoed Sunday by President Bush -- that the onus is on the Palestinians. The Palestinians said they made dozens of arrests Sunday and more were planned.

Where Israel sees itself as waging a legitimate fight against terrorism, the Palestinians see a cycle of violence caused by Israel's 34-year occupation in the West Bank and Gaza and its effort to settle those areas with Jews. And they note that since September 2000 more Palestinians were killed than Israelis -- 784 people on the Palestinian side compared to 231 on the Israeli side.

War's 'turning point'

In Israel on Sunday, there were calls for drastic action, such as the expulsion of Arafat or the destruction of his 7-year-old Palestinian Authority. Even moderate Cabinet minister Matan Vilnai said the conflict has reached "a turning point."

But Ronnie Daniel, military affairs analyst for Israel's Channel 2 TV, said the presence in the region of U.S. envoy Anthony Zinni -- who has issued a clear call for Arafat to act now -- could create a last chance for the Palestinian leader.

Daniel suggested Israeli restraint was needed, too. "Arafat is undoubtedly in one of his toughest corners and Israeli restraint might perhaps bring Arafat to real, serious action against Hamas and the others," he said. Another factor that could work in Arafat's favor -- and avert a further escalation -- is Israel's own lack of attractive options.

Since fighting began, Israel has invaded Palestinian autonomous zones, sealed Palestinians in their towns, killed dozens of militants, attacked Palestinian Authority installations and -- critics say -- allowed its army a light trigger finger against civilians.

Sharon's government has refrained from formally declaring Arafat an enemy, however -- a move that would signal to the public that he was ready to dismantle all or part of the Palestinian Authority.

Sharon's coalition

Recent incursions into a half-dozen Palestinian towns stopped at the outskirts in most cases. Now there is pressure on Sharon to drive deeper and carry out a complete takeover of militant strongholds like Jenin and Nablus in order to arrest all the militants and shut down bomb factories.

That path would make targets of the occupiers and in effect return the unpopular and costly full military occupation over Palestinians that the 1990s peace process sought to end.

It would also likely spell the end of Sharon's "unity government" with the pro-peace Labor Party. Vilnai, of Labor, cautioned that Israel should not act out of anger and should ask itself "whether there exists another force that could take (Arafat's) place."