Arabs are closely following Iraq elections

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- A young man in a Saudi cafe worries that Iraq's elections could lead to civil war. On the banks of the Nile, a student strolling with his girlfriend dismisses the polls as an American sham. Yemeni students, chewing their mildly stimulating khat leaves, express hope the United States will pressure other tyrannical regimes to change.

The Arab world paid close attention to Sunday's polling in Iraq, which has major implications for the entire region.

The Iraq vote will almost certainly bring to power the country's long-suppressed Shiite Muslims, boosting the sect's influence in this Sunni Muslim-dominated area and worrying countries with Shiite minorities.

It also will mean a success for Washington's drive to bring democracy to Iraq -- a precedent that could shake up the autocratic Arab world.

"Arab governments may not say it, but they don't want Iraq's democratic experiment to succeed," said Turki al-Hamad, a prominent Saudi columnist and former political science professor. "Such a success would embarrass them and present them with the dilemma of either changing or being changed."

Arabs had mixed feelings about the poll. Many said U.S. involvement reinforced their distrust.

"This election is an American movie made to convince Iraqis to go to the polls so that the United States will stay in Iraq and control its oil," said Jordanian Mohammed Fakhri, 28, owner of a mobile phone shop. "There will be ... a government with Iraqi stooges serving U.S. and Israeli interests."

'A sedative for the people'

An Egyptian flower vendor who gave her name only as Um Abdel Rahman dismissed the poll as "a sedative for the people. Democracy is just a decoration."

Wouldn't she like to participate in free elections? "Women speak their minds all the time. I don't need to vote," she said.

However, others hoped the poll would be a catalyst for a regionwide democratic push.

The elections are a "good omen for getting rid of dictatorship," Yemeni political science student Fathi al-Uraiqi said, chewing khat with friends. "But I hope America is not driven by its own interests but by a genuine desire to spread democracy in the rest of the region."

The rise of Iraq's Shiite community was of major interest to their Shiite brethren in neighboring Saudi Arabia -- and a concern to the kingdom's leadership. The Shiite minority in the country, centered in its Eastern Province, has long complained of discrimination.

"People are glued to their TV screens" in al-Qatif and Ihsaa, Shiite-dominated towns in Eastern Province, said Muhammad Mahfouz, a Shiite editor of a cultural magazine.

Shiite clergy prayed for smooth and safe elections during special services held Saturday for Ghadeer, a day marking what Shiites believe was the prophet Muhammad's naming of his son-in-law Ali as his successor.

Some of Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbors have expressed fears a Shiite-dominated government in Iraq could join with Iran to form a Shiite crescent, threatening traditional Sunni dominance of the region and inspiring potential political claims by other Shiites.

Lobbying for rights

The columnist al-Hamad, who lives in the Eastern Province, said a Shiite government in Iraq will give Saudi Shiites "the confidence to lobby more persistently for those rights."

But they "are not demanding self-rule or an alliance with Iran. They just want rights that citizens in any country expect," he said.

Arab intellectuals, politicians and writers differed over whether the elections would provide a good example for democratic reform in a region where free and fair elections are rare and human rights groups operate with difficulty.

Arab League spokesman Hossam Zaki said the election was a step forward, but added that Iraq, with its unstable security situation, was a "model to be avoided."

Lebanese politician Walid Jumblatt said the polls can only be judged after the results come out. But so far they've proven "a bizarre model," with candidates campaigning furtively for fear of insurgent attacks and Sunni Muslims boycotting the process.

Writing in Beirut's Al-Anwar newspaper, political analyst Rafik Khoury said Arab governments who have criticized shortcomings of Iraq's elections, demanding that they be "honest and transparent ... themselves ban such elections for their own peoples."

An Egyptian student, Ahmed Abdel Rahman, openly spoke about not trusting U.S. intentions in Iraq, saying the new Iraqi ruler "will be a follower of America."

But when asked if democracy can grow in Egypt, where President Hosni Mubarak is widely expected to seek a fifth term in power, the 20-year-old looked over his shoulder and said:

"Let's talk about Iraq. Let's stay away from talking about Egypt."

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

Iraq's elections Sunday merely began a process intended to transform the country into a democracy. The tally of the votes is only the first of several steps to come:

* The 275-member transitional National Assembly will first choose a largely ceremonial president and two vice presidents. They, in turn, will pick a prime minister and a Cabinet that must be ratified by the assembly.

* The assembly, elected for an 11-month term, will draft a permanent constitution.

* Iraqis will hold a national referendum in October to accept or reject the constitution.

* If the document is approved, Iraqis will vote in December for a permanent government under the constitution.

* If the document is rejected, Iraqis will repeat the whole process, voting for a new transitional assembly to draft a new constitution.