Arab opposition groups gather steam

DAMASCUS, Syria -- Riad Turk knows something about freedom.

The grandfather of this country's opposition, Turk spent more than two decades as a political prisoner, most of it in solitary confinement. He was tortured and beaten repeatedly, once slipping into a coma that lasted 25 days.

Released late last year, Turk, 73, immediately renewed his efforts to win more freedom from Syria's repressive dictatorship. But now, there is a new, if unwelcome, participant in his long struggle: the United States.

"The specter of the United States is now roaming the Arab region, and the Arab leaders are frightened of it," said Turk.

In five Arab nations, leading dissidents, analysts and diplomats said opposition movements were taking advantage of the political uncertainty to demand basic reforms from the autocratic regimes that dominate the region.

"Every dictator was watching carefully," said Mohsen Awajy, a Saudi lawyer who was once jailed for his criticism of moral corruption among the Saudi princes. "It was a very important moment for all dictatorships. The climate is now completely different."

Deep distrust

In a region where the United States is deeply distrusted, dissidents must now struggle for democratic changes without appearing to be allies of an enemy.

They expressed a deep distrust of U.S. motives in the region, noting that the United States has long backed repressive regimes in countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and even tacitly Syria.

"We are going our own way. We are not against the American agenda, but nobody here trusts American policy," said Essam Erian, a member of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamic fundamentalist movement. "We are struggling for our democracy, not American democracy."

Although some skeptics questioned the depth of the reform possible, there was general agreement that the invasion has created the biggest political opening in the Arab world in decades. Among the changes under way:

Syrian opposition figures are publishing two newspapers that explicitly criticize the regime of President Bashar Assad. Similar attempts in the past have resulted in jail terms.

Lebanese are forming a Christian-Muslim political alliance whose explicit goal is to expel Syria's military and political influence.

Syria controls political activity in Lebanon, thanks to the 15,000 troops that it maintains as part of a deal to ensure stability in its neighbor. Past opposition efforts have been punished with mass arrests.

Some Egyptian groups recently joined together to protest the succession of President Hosni Mubarak's son as the country's next president -- long a forbidden topic.

Saudi Arabian reformers are criticizing the royal family in newspapers and on Arab world television networks such as Al-Jazeera. Past attempts have resulted in arrests, the suspension of travel privileges and jail sentences.

Despite the burst of activity, nobody is predicting any immediate political shift in the Arab world.

Rather, there is hope of small, gradual changes to allow such rights as freedom of speech or assembly.

Much depends on Iraq. If the United States becomes bogged down in prolonged occupation, many opposition leaders predicted that the region's authoritarian regimes would have a free hand to crack down again.

But if the U.S. manages to install a stable democracy, it could spark a series of democratic changes, the so-called domino effect that the Bush administration advanced as one of the justifications for the war.

It is difficult to talk of opposition movements in the Arab world. Where organized political parties exist, as in Jordan and Lebanon, election laws, gerrymandering and outright repression make it difficult to win elections or advance a political agenda.

In other countries, like Syria, opposition movements are simply outlawed. Harsh repression -- in the form of arrest, torture and expulsion -- has decimated the ranks of dissidents. Former Syrian President Hafez Assad ordered an attack against the Muslim Brotherhood in the city of Hama in 1982 that resulted in an estimated 10,000 deaths.

Turk, for instance, is the head of the Communist Party Politburo in Syria -- the branch of the party that does not back the government. But even he admits that after two decades in jail, neither his party, nor any other in Syria, is strong enough to present a political threat.

"The opposition is not coherent," Turk said.

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How exactly to benefit from the U.S. effort is one of the hardest questions facing opposition leaders since anyone cooperating with the West has long been suspect in the Arab world.

"Nobody can be on America's side. We will be accused of being traitors," said Mahmoud Abdul Karim, a Syrian filmmaker and journalist. "They are supporting the guys in Israel who are occupying our land. It's not acceptable." Still, there is an undeniable enthusiasm about the possibility of change.

Journalist Nabil Molhem sat in a lawyer's office in Damascus one morning recently, pouring over the final proofs of a weekly satirical newspaper called Al Domari - the Illuminator.

The paper had previously been shuttered by the Syrian government, but Molhem now had in his hands the latest edition, which featured an open letter to Assad, calling upon him to allow political reform to proceed.

Molhem, a journalist who proudly identifies himself as part of the "press militia" that is against Assad, said he was not sure if the paper would actually be distributed on the streets.

He leafed through the pages one by one, slowly and with care, like a man examining his newborn child. The ceiling fan clattered overhead and the sounds of cars honking on the street outside filled the room.

The risk of being shut down again -- or even being arrested -- was worth it, he said.