Analysts- N. Korea's rhetoric calculated to stir hostilities

SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea's interception of a U.S. reconnaissance plane was an attempt to grab the attention of the world's only superpower, analysts believe. But it may also have been a means of stirring tension and patriotic fervor at home.

The second theory underscores the possibility that dictator Kim Jong Il is playing as much to a home audience in the standoff over his nation's suspected efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

In this scenario, Kim is more apt to take a hawkish approach to boost the prestige of the military, the pillar of his rule, as well as distract attention from North Korea's economic debacle by raising fears of war with the United States.

"By keeping the level of hostility high, he can focus the attention of his officer corps on this outside threat rather than the fact that he's destroying the country," said Ivan Oelrich, an analyst at the Federation of American Scientists, a research center in Washington D.C.

U.S. and South Korean officials believe North Korea has embarked on a campaign of risky military stunts in order to pressure Washington to give it economic aid and formal security assurances.

Building tension

Last week, North Korean fighter jets intercepted an unarmed U.S. plane in international airspace. There was no hostile fire, but the incident signaled the potential for clashes on the divided peninsula.

"It's part of North Korea's brinksmanship tactics to bring the United States to direct dialogue, but we also interpret that as an attempt to heighten anti-American sentiments and build up the atmosphere of tension among the domestic population," South Korean Defense Minister Cho Young-kil told a parliamentary hearing Friday.

U.S. officials said Friday that North Korea also appeared to be preparing for another missile test.

President Bush says he seeks a diplomatic solution to the nuclear problem, but has not ruled out a military option as a last resort.

The constituency that Kim needs to placate is the military, which pervades all aspects of North Korean society. Its huge conventional forces, missile arsenal and possibly one or two nuclear weapons are the pride, and policy tool, of a leadership that has few friends and is desperate to survive.

Some experts say talking and acting tough with the United States can only enhance Kim's image at home.

"He's projecting an image: 'Look, I'm a tough guy. I'm equal to President Bush,"' said Kong Dan Oh, co-author of the book "North Korea through the Looking Glass."

Building tension

Information is tightly restricted in North Korea, and Kim is probably confident he can disseminate news of purported achievements, as well as heighten concerns of an outside threat, without fear of contradiction. So the North's repeated assertions that the Korean Peninsula is on the brink of war might be as much for domestic as international consumption.

In recent years, North Korea had actively pursued better relations with South Korea and the rest of the outside world, albeit at a slow and erratic pace. That process has reversed since U.S. officials said in October that the North had a covert nuclear weapons program in violation of a 1994 agreement.

Alexandre Mansourov, a former Soviet diplomat in Pyongyang, speculated that Kim has lost some credibility at home because of the North's apparent backslide toward political isolation and more economic difficulties.

"I would argue that Kim Jong Il is engaged in a two-level game at home and abroad whereby his domestic considerations are as important to him, if not more, as the signals which he sends to and receives from the international community," Mansourov said.

North Korea's economic troubles are partly due to a pattern of communist mismanagement that has rendered it dependent on outside food aid. As it often does, though, the leadership on Friday blamed its woes on the United States.

"If (North Korea) is free from the U.S. threat, the Korean people can live well off without others' help," said KCNA, the state news agency.