An unclear future: Bush, military leaders refuse to commit to a withdrawal

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration and the U.S. military are looking for victory against a stubborn insurgency, two and a half years after the first bombs fell on Baghdad. Yet ever more members of Congress and the American public are looking for a way out.

With the death toll reaching 2,000, those two goals are colliding as escalating public impatience with the war is triggering demands for more progress in Iraq than the political and military forces have been able to muster.

That leaves predictions murky about when a significant U.S. withdrawal from Iraq can commence -- and how much higher American casualties may rise.

President Bush has spoken only in generalities -- vowing to stay the course, stay on the offense. The troops, he said, will come home when Iraqi forces become more capable.

Military commanders, meanwhile, have had varying views of the Iraqi security forces' capabilities.

Bush and his military leaders steadfastly refuse to commit to an exit timetable, insisting that it would only provide a tempting goal for terrorists eager to wait out the Americans. But as suicide bombers blast away at coalition forces and Iraqi people, U.S. lawmakers have gotten more vocal about the need for a road map out of Iraq.

As a result, the 2,000th death, while in itself no more tragic than any other single war fatality, brings greater political reverberations for Bush.

In recent months as the death toll rose, vital segments of voters voiced increasing displeasure with Bush. According to a recent AP-Ipsos poll, Bush's job ap-proval rating has sunk to 39 percent, the lowest level of his presidency, while 66 percent of those polled said the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Republicans and Democrats in Congress have turned up the heat on administration officials and military leaders, grilling them about their specific plan for winning the war and bringing the troops home.

"We should recognize that most Americans are focused on an exit strategy in Iraq," Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., told Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during a Senate hearing. "Even if withdrawal timelines are deemed unwise because they might provide a strategic advantage to the insurgency, the American people need to more fully understand the basis upon which our troops are likely to come home."

Lawmakers and analysts suggest that the political hurdles in Iraq are higher than the military ones. Bush, though, has touted the progress that the fledgling democracy has made -- with its successful parliamentary elections in January and balloting on the constitution earlier this month.

Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., who recently returned from a visit to Iraq, said the key problem is that the Iraqi government still doesn't have the capacity to run the country.

"The military leaders will tell you this battle is not going to be won by military force, it's a political struggle like every insurgency," said Reed. "We can buy time and create an environment, but if you don't have the civilian experts, who can talk about reconstruction, political activity, education reform, then we're not gong to improve people's lives."

U.S. military commanders track the Iraqis' progress, in part, by counting the number of Iraqi security forces that are considered trained and equipped, and eventually able to take over the fight so American forces can go home.