Ag Department slashes latest crop estimates because of drought

WASHINGTON -- The drought that has struck many areas of the country is cutting into corn, soybean, cotton and wheat production this year, but the losses are not likely to lead to higher consumer prices anytime soon.

In its latest forecast Monday, the Agriculture Department predicted 2002 corn production will total 8.89 billion bushels, 7 percent below last year and the lowest since 1995.

"The corn crop is clearly the saddest I've seen in years," said Bill Nelson, a commodities analyst with A.G. Edwards & Sons who recently visited farms in Nebraska and other dry states.

Forecasts for other commodities also were lowered Monday. Officials expect soybean production to drop 9 percent from last year to 2.63 billion bushels. Wheat will be down 14 percent at 1.69 billion bushels, and the cotton crop will be 9 percent lower at 18.4 million 480-pound bales.

Buyers are uncertain about how and when the smaller harvests will boost retail food prices.

"It's too early to tell now based on the information because most of the raw materials we need ... are already in production or are being processed," said Gene Grabowski, spokesman for the Grocery Manufacturers of America. "For right now we're OK, mainly because we buy so far in advance."

Farmers may get some short-term relief from weather this week. The National Weather Service is forecasting about an inch of rain over the western Corn Belt and a cold front may sweep across the Midwest.

Nelson, however, said the dry regions need several rainfalls to moisten the soil because crops can use up to a quarter of an inch of rain per day.

'Just astronomical'

Ron Woollen of Wilcox, Neb., anticipates he'll lose nearly half of his corn, soybean and sorghum crops even though he is irrigating two-thirds of the nearly 2,000 acres he farms.

"We have had trouble really keeping up, especially lately on the water, primarily because there's been no rain and it's been so hot out here," Woollen said. "Our irrigation costs are going to be just astronomical."

Corn and soybeans are used in hundreds of food products, and farmers use them as feed for hogs, cattle, chickens and other livestock. The drought has forced some cattlemen to sell their herds because they can't afford to feed them.

Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman announced Monday that $150 million in supplemental feed is being made available to farmers raising cattle in areas most severely affected by the drought.

Congressional Democrats and Republicans have introduced bills calling for emergency aid for drought-stricken farmers and ranchers. But lawmakers just passed an election-year farm bill with record subsidies, and getting a new package through may be difficult.