Afghan refugees may become military problem

WASHINGTON -- If the United States attacks terrorist targets in Afghanistan, soldiers will have to deal with not only armed resistance but also with cascades of starving, desperate and fearful refugees.

Military officials must plan how the armed forces will help ease the humanitarian crisis and avoid killing civilians. Failure on either point could turn public opinion against the war on terrorism, not only in the United States but throughout the region and around the world.

That's a tall order for a country ravaged by 22 years of war, five years of the harsh Taliban regime and two years of drought. Afghanistan has been the world's No. 1 source of refugees for the past 20 years, with about 3.6 million currently in Pakistan, Iran and other countries.

Thousands more Afghans have fled since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States, fearing retaliatory strikes against suspect Osama bin Laden and the Taliban militia that shelters him.

Many Afghans were on the edge of starvation before the attacks and have fled to the countryside, where food is even more scarce. The Taliban has kicked out all foreign aid workers and threatened Afghan relief workers with execution if they contacted anyone outside the country. United Nations officials left behind only a two weeks' supply of food.

"What's amazing is how much damage can be done without even starting military action," said Kathleen Newland of the Migration Policy Institute in Washington.

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan has appealed for $584 million to aid 7.5 million Afghans over the next six months. President Bush directed the State Department to release $25 million to help with Afghan relief efforts.

On Saturday, a convoy carrying 200 tons of wheat left Pakistan for Kabul, the Afghan capital -- the first food aid since the terrorist attacks.

U.S. military leaders are "very closely watching how the humanitarian crisis is developing," Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. George Rhynedance said Saturday. The State Department is leading U.S. government efforts to deal with the refugees, and the Defense Department is consulting with diplomatic officials and humanitarian groups "to determine the proper course if there is a defense piece to this," Rhynedance said.

If there is military action, the refugee problem will get worse once the shooting starts. One problem is that fighters may mix with the crowds of refugees, giving U.S. soldiers the dilemma of whether to fire into such groups.