Administrator says elections are possible next year in Iraq

BAGHDAD -- Iraq could be ready to hold elections as early as next year, a step that would open the way for American and allied military forces to leave, the U.S. administrator said Thursday.

The timetable for elections would be driven by the speed with which the Iraqis write and ratify a new constitution, L. Paul Bremer said in an interview with a small group of reporters at his headquarters in one of Saddam Hussein's former palaces.

"I think it's realistic. It's up to them," he said. "Look, how long is it going to take you to write the constitution? You ought to be able to write a constitution in six or eight months." He suggested that work could start in September, in which case "you ought to be able to have elections in a year."

One obstacle is the fact that Iraq has not conducted a credible national census since 1987, Bremer said.

"If we're going to have an election next year we need to start" addressing the census problem now, he said. A United Nations expert on voter registration is coming to Iraq to advise Bremer on how registration could be done nationally in lieu of a full census.

Bremer spoke after meeting with Paul Wolfowitz, the deputy defense secretary, who flew to the Iraqi capital from Washington on Thursday to assess the situation.

Leaving his plane, Wolfowitz was met by a furnace-like blast of wind in his face and machine-gun toting American soldiers scanning the tarmac's perimeter.

Wolfowitz traveled in Baghdad with armed guards; he flew from Baghdad International Airport to Bremer's headquarters on the banks of the Tigris River in an Army UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter with machine gunners keeping watch out both sides.

He also met with Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, the senior U.S. commander in Iraq.

Upon his arrival, Wolfowitz told reporters traveling with him that his first priority was to meet with troops and thank them for their sacrifices and successes.

"And secondly I look forward to seeing firsthand evidence of what it means for the Iraqi people to be liberated from decades of brutal repression," he said moments after stepping off an Air Force C-17 cargo plane following a 12-hour overnight flight from Washington.

"I'm here to better understand what is needed to complete the transition to a government and a society of, by and for the Iraqi people," he added.

The Bush administration says it is on course to quell the violence that has killed U.S. troops at a rate of nearly one a day, and to establish a political process that will enable a new Iraqi government to take power. But some in Congress question whether the current approach is working, at the cost of $1 billion a week and daily U.S. casualties.

Bremer disputed what he called misguided reports that he and the administration he is running in Baghdad lack a strategy for achieving the goal of a free and prosperous Iraq.

"We've got a strategy. It's just damned hard to implement it," he said.

One of the most vexing problems, he said, is the decayed state of the economy, including outdated and fragile industrial resources and an unemployment rate well over 50 percent.

"It is not possible to overstate the devastation of the economy," he said.

While acknowledging "we do have a security problem," especially in central Iraq, Bremer said the killings of U.S. troops by a shadowy resistance element will not deter the military.

"These attacks do not pose a strategic threat to the coalition," he said. "These are small-scale, bitter-end attacks We will pacify this region."

In a separate interview at Bremer's headquarters, former New York City police commissioner Bernard Kerik said he is making progress toward re-establishing an Iraqi police force.

He said that about 30,000 Iraqis who were policemen under Saddam's government have returned to work and are going through a retraining course, to include human rights instruction. So far 34 police stations have been reopened in Baghdad, and the goal is 60, he said.

"Anybody who comes here and thinks this is an easy go is sadly mistaken," he said.

Wolfowitz planned to meet with troops from Army and Marine Corps units that are attempting to stamp out remnants of the ousted Baath Party that ruled Iraq for more than three decades.

Some in the administration believe there are thousands of Baathists holding out hope that by attacking U.S. troops and sabotaging efforts to rebuild the country they will sap the will of Americans to remain in Iraq, and eventually will restore Saddam to power. Officials are unsure whether this effort was organized before the war began or has come together in the aftermath of Baghdad's fall.