Shotgun and spread puts QB prospects behind 8-ball

~ Daniel set many records at Mizzou, but won't be a high pick.

They spend their college careers rewriting record books, competing for Heismans, leading their teams into the middle of national-title conversations.

It's all great until draft day rolls around. Many don't get picked, or if they do, it's much farther down the list than they'd hoped. Some get turned into receivers. The lucky few whose stock remains high often get their two- or three-year try before they, too, find themselves labeled as disappointments or busts.

These are the quarterbacks of the shotgun, the spread, the dreaded "system" offenses that are taking over college football.

They are the Andre Wares of 10 years ago, the Alex Smiths of more recent vintage, the Graham Harrells and Chase Daniels of today.

Harrell (Texas Tech) and Daniel (Missouri) recently concluded college careers in which they threw for thousands of yards, set dozens of records, became household names. They have been rewarded by largely being left off the list of this weekend's top 100 -- or 200 -- draft prospects.

For them, getting drafted is not a matter of when, but if. And if they do get their chance with an NFL team, it won't come with many expectations.

"I'd go as far as saying that playing in that kind of offense is a gift and a curse," said Shaun King, the former spread quarterback at Tulane who had some success transitioning to the pros with Tampa Bay.

"The gift is, you're forced to make quick decisions, recognize a defense and understand where the football should go," he said. "The detriment is, in the shotgun, you're automatically on balance. There's no drop. It's easier to have your feet where they're supposed to be. Then you have to do all that while coming from under center. It takes some significant athleticism to make the change."

Ask 100 draft experts why the so-called system QBs never pan out and you will get 100 variations on the same theme:

* Spread offenses don't give quarterbacks opportunities to read defenses while making the three-, five- or seven-step drops so prevalent in the NFL;

* They only require the quarterback to read one side of the field;

* They allow quarterbacks to pad stats by getting big chunks on bubble screens and low-risk throws;

* They don't subject the thrower to the physical or mental pounding he'll take in the NFL;

* There are footwork issues.

The good news for these quarterbacks is that one constant has remained, whether the player works in the wishbone, shotgun or anything in between: If they have size, talent, arm and brains, eventually they will find their way into a lineup.

"If you have the skill level, you can make it no matter what," ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper said. "But if you take a Matthew Stafford and you put him at Texas Tech, it's going to make for a tougher evaluation."

As it turned out, evaluating Stafford hasn't been that difficult, in part because he played in a pro-style offense at Georgia that served him well, even if the Bulldogs didn't reach their full potential. Ranked first at the beginning of last season, Georgia lost an ugly game at home to Alabama in September and was out of the national title hunt by Nov. 1.

Still, Stafford widely is projected as the best quarterback in the draft.

Meanwhile, Missouri and Texas Tech spent the last two years shaking up the Big 12 and giving themselves a chance at the national title much deeper into the season.

In his second season after taking over for Brad Smith, a multiple record setter at Mizzou who is now playing receiver for the Jets, Daniel led the Tigers to a No. 1 ranking heading into the Big 12 title game in 2007.

Last November, Harrell made what might go down as the most memorable throw of the season, the 28-yard touchdown to Michael Crabtree on the sideline with 1 second left that gave the Red Raiders a 39-33 win over Texas. Texas Tech moved to No. 2 in the polls after that win.

Harrell threw for 5,111 yards last season, becoming the first college player to break the 5,000-yard mark twice.

Daniel finished with 13,256 yards of total offense, a Missouri record.

But barring some kind of draft-day miracle, neither will be picked on the first day and both likely will be waiting until the end to see if their name gets called at all.

"You can forget about the statistics and the yardage that's accumulated," said former Bucs and Raiders coach Jon Gruden, who now works for the NFL Network. "The question is, can they make NFL throws under center under the gun? If they've fallen on draft boards, it's because the times they've been seen, people have come away with questions about their physical status and their arm strength."