UNPREPARED ARE ON SHAKY GROUND

The students at L.J. Schultz School obediently curled up under their desks for Thursday's earthquake drill, then came out to learn more about surviving such a natural disaster.

They learned where to take shelter, how to reunite with family members and what sort of supplies to have on hand.

Unfortunately, some of them know more about earthquake survival than their parents.

Martha Vandivort, deputy director of emergency preparedness for Cape Girardeau County, said many people quickly got over the earthquake scare in 1990. Geologist Iben Browning predicted disastrous movement in the New Madrid Fault for December of that year, sending Southeast Missouri residents into a panic.

It didn't happen, and people let their guards down.

February 4-10, designated Missouri Earthquake Awareness Week by Gov. Mel Carnahan, will give survival experts the chance to educate the public about standing on shaky ground.

"It will happen sooner or later," Vandivort said. "It may be 200 years, but it will happen. I personally would rather be prepared now."

Statistics indicate that an earthquake likely will occur here in less than 200 years. According to Dr. Haydar Al-Shukri, director of the Center for Earthquake Studies at Southeast Missouri State University, there's a 50 percent chance of an earthquake in the next decade.

It will probably be 6.0 on the Richter scale, resulting in serious damage to structures from Memphis, Tenn., to St. Louis.

In May 1995, geologists with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources discovered another fault line near Benton, one separate from the far-reaching New Madrid Fault. After the discovery, Al-Shukri said it was "sleeping but it has the potential of waking up."

Trouble is, nobody knows when it will wake up. Most natural disasters have some sort of warning signs -- volcanic eruptions, tornadoes, hurricanes -- but earthquakes don't. Scientists recognize a few chemical changes in groundwater that may relate to earthquakes, Al-Shukri said, but they may be coincidences.

"We usually record a small earthquake about every 48 hours," he said. "We have close to 200 earthquakes a year. Almost all of them don't have enough energy for people to feel them, but sensitive instruments indicate to us which faults are active."

Seismic information compiled at the Center for Earthquake Studies will be even more accurate as soon as St. Louis University, the University of Memphis and Southeast work together on establishing substations in the Cape Girardeau area for charting seismic activity.

While the experts gather their information, area residents should be gathering supplies, Vandivort said. At the absolute minimum, they need plenty of fresh water and a duffel bag with a complete change of clothing and sturdy shoes.

"You can get along without food for awhile and probably find a blanket to wrap up in, but finding good, clean water will be hard after an earthquake," Vandivort said.

Bottled water should be exchanged regularly to ensure freshness. It's also a good idea to store plenty of canned goods and a can opener.

Homeowners should know how to shut off gas lines after an earthquake. They shouldn't start fires following earthquakes. Parents and children should have a plan to find each other.

For more information, people can visit the Center for Earthquake Studies' display at the West Park Mall during Earthquake Awareness Week. It will include photos and pamphlets, and a center employee will be there to answer questions.