Split among Iraq's Shiites could cost them in next parliament

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- As Iraq's Sunni Muslims ponder boycotting the Jan. 30 election and some press for a delay, the majority Shiite Muslims face another threat to their expected victory: a split in Shiite ranks that could cost them the chance to dominate the next parliament.

Separate candidate lists are being compiled by aides to President Ghazi al-Yawer and Prime Minister Ayad Allawi -- drawing Shiites away from the ticket that the country's top Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is overseeing, according to well-connected Shiite figures.

The chairman of Iraq's elections commission said that this week's international conference on Iraq has strengthened the government's resolve to hold the election on time. Abdul-Hussein Hendawi also said demands that the vote be postponed could only be met if political consensus is found since the country had no legislature to adopt such a move.

For Iraq's Shiites -- about 60 percent of the population -- the vote could herald an end to centuries of oppression at the hands of Sunni Arabs

Voters will choose a 275-member assembly which among other things will draw up a permanent constitution. If adopted in a nationwide referendum, the document would serve as basis for another general election by December 2005.

With so much riding on the election, al-Sistani has been working to unite the Shiites ahead of the vote to ensure victory. The Iranian-born cleric is overseeing the work of top aides seeking to compile a 165-candidate list which would be put to the voters nationwide.

Under an election law adopted this year, there will be no electoral boundaries for the January vote, with the entire country treated as a single constituency. A system of proportional representation will be applicable, with voters asked to cast ballots for independent candidates or slates of at least 12 candidates.

But al-Sistani's efforts to persuade Allawi to join his ticket have so far failed, according to people close to the Shiite cleric. Allawi, a secular Shiite, remains adamant to go it alone with his own list of candidates, even after al-Sistani recently sent a top Shiite politician to try and win him over.

The Shiite insiders, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Allawi's refusal may in part be because his rival, senior Shiite politician Ahmad Chalabi of the Iraq National Congress, is on al-Sistani's ticket.

Another reason could be that the prime minister is trying to cultivate an image as a national, rather than sectarian, leader to win support outside Shiite ranks.

Al-Sistani had invited non-Shiites to join a national list, but none has come forward.

The Shiite insiders said they could not rule out a change of heart by Allawi, whose Iraq National Accord includes both Shiites and Sunni Arabs, as well as Kurds and former members of Saddam's Baath party.

"At the end, he may feel the need for al-Sistani's support," said one Shiite familiar with the meeting between the prime minister and al-Sistani's envoy. "But right now, he's riding on a series of diplomatic and military victories against his critics and might be playing hard to get in the hope of winning concessions."

Hendawi, the election commission chief, said a total of 217 political parties and movements have registered to run as of Thursday night.

Another setback to al-Sistani's effort to unite the Shiite vote comes from al-Yawer, the interim president. Although a Sunni Arab, al-Yawer commands the loyalty of Shiite clans which belong to the large Shamar tribe, of which he is a top sheik.

Al-Yawer is running in the election at the head of the new "Iraqis' Party and is cultivating support from Kurds, Sunnis, Shiites and Christians. Hazem Shaalan, Iraq's Shiite defense minister, has joined him.

Representatives of Muqtada al-Sadr, a radical Shiite cleric whose supporters rose up against U.S. forces twice this year, are taking part in negotiations with al-Sistani's aides. But they are making their support conditional on the number of seats that will eventually be allocated to their movement.

A walkout by the "Sadrists" could deal a serious blow to al-Sistani's efforts since the movement enjoys wide support in Baghdad's poor Shiite areas -- like Sadr City, where at least two million Shiites live -- and in a string of cities in central and southern Iraq.

Meanwhile, some senior Sunni figures are demanding that the election be delayed for at least six months. A total of 17 mostly Sunni Arab, Kurdish and secular political parties signed a joint statement Friday calling for the delay to allow the government time to secure polling stations.

Some of them also want time to persuade influential Sunni clerics to abandon their call for a boycott, issued after this month's U.S.-led assault on the Sunni insurgent stronghold of Fallujah.

U.S. and Iraqi officials fear that a Sunni boycott could undermine the new government's legitimacy.

For now, Allawi's government is insisting the election will go ahead as scheduled. Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told a television interviewer this week that putting off the vote would be seen as a victory for insurgents fighting U.S. troops and their Iraqi allies.

Officials were encouraged by this week's international conference in Egypt's Red Sea resort of Sharm El-Sheik, in which delegations from Iraq's neighbors and from the permanent members of the U.N. security Council endorsed the election.