FEBRUARY HAS UPBEAT OUTLOOK; FORECASTERS HAVE MORE OPTIMISM THAN GROUNDHOG

CAPE GIRARDEAU -- The groundhog may have seen his shadow here Saturday but the National Weather Service has a much more optimistic weather prediction for the final month of winter.

According to the legend, if the groundhog comes out of his den on Feb. 2 and sees his shadow, he'll run back into the den and people are supposedly in for six more weeks of winter weather.

But the 30-day weather outlook for February seems to indicate anything but cold weather is ahead for much of the United State, including Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois.

The weather service says average temperatures this month should be well above the long-term monthly average, with near, to slightly below normal amounts of precipitation.

And the weather service's 90-day outlook, through the end of April, is just as optimistic. It calls for seasonable temperatures and precipitation during the three-month period.

The good news comes after what was described by many as a drab, dreary and wet January. Despite the number of wet and overcast days, however, the monthly temperature average for January was just about normal, said Dr. Al Robertson of the Southeast Missouri State University Earth Science Department.

"The January average was 32 degrees," Robertson reported. "That's only .7 of a degree below the long-term average. It just seemed colder than it actually was because of all the cloudy and rainy days we had." At one time during the month, it had been over 30 days since there was a full day of sunshine here.

Robertson said the number of overcast days last month helped set a new average daily temperature range for January. He explained the range is the difference between the average daily high and the average daily low. The spread last month was only 11.4 degrees, compared to the old record of 12 degrees, set in 1974, Robertson said.

"There were ten days last month when the high was in the 40s, but more importantly, we had seven days when the high was 32 degrees, or less," he continued.

The high last month was 52. The low was 13 degrees. On five mornings, the low was in the teens, while on six other mornings, the low was just barely above freezing, Robertson said.

According to the January ten-day temperature averages, it was actually warmer during the traditionally coldest time of the year here.

During the first ten days of the month, the average was 29.5 degrees, down 3.2 degrees from the long-term average of 32.7 degrees.

During the second ten-day period, however, the average was 36.7 degrees, up 4.3 degrees from the long-term average of 32.4 degrees, which is the coldest average ten day period of the year in Cape Girardeau.

The average for the final ten days of the month was 30 degrees, down 3.3 degrees from the long-term average.

Robertson said our weather last month was strongly influenced by the close proximity of the sub-tropical jet stream. "The presence of the sub-tropical jet brought up lots of moist air over the colder air at the surface," he explained. "That resulted in the large number of overcast days with wet weather."

Precipitation last month at the airport totaled 3.56 inches, .04 of an inch over the long-term average.

Robertson said it rained on eleven of the 31 days last month, with the most, .87 of an inch coming on Jan. 6. "There was no particular pattern to the rainfall. It was scattered throughout the month," he reported.

Although there were traces of snow reported at the airport, no measurable amounts of snow fell there last month, he said. On the average, 3.5 inches of snow can be expected here in January. "There was certainly lots of snow to the north and south of us, but not much in town," Robertson said.

Although spring doesn't officially arrive until March 20 this year, the weather service considers February to be the final month of winter, based on three-month quarters.

The long-term average temperature here for February is 37.4 degrees. Last year, the average was an unusually warm 44 degrees, 6.6 degrees above normal.

The high for the month last year was a spring-like 68 degrees, on Feb. 12. The low wasn't all that cold, 20 degrees, on Feb. 25.

The record high for the month is 85 degrees, set on Feb. 28, 1952. The record low for the month, minus ten degrees, occurred on Feb. 2, 1952.

The warmest February in 45 years at Cape Girardeau was in 1954, with an average of 46.7 degrees. The coldest February during the same number of years was 23.9 degrees in 1978.

Although February is traditionally the driest month of the year in Cape Girardeau, Robertson says the past two years have been memorable exceptions.

Long-term average precipitation for February is 2.84 inches. Last year, 7.85 inches was recorded, making it the second wettest February in Cape Girardeau in 45 years. The wettest February ever in Cape Girardeau was in 1989, with 9.66 inches.

This month also marks the 11th anniversary of the blizzard of 1979. On Sunday, Feb. 25, 1979, approximately 24 inches of snow buried all of Cape Girardeau County and parts of other surrounding counties, in huge snow drifts, paralyzing all normal activity for nearly one week.

Officials later said a major disaster was averted only because much warmer temperatures returned later in the week and helped the engineers from the Missouri Army National Guard to clear snow-clogged roads in the towns and rural areas.