DESPITE GLOOM AND DOOM, STATE REVENUE KEEPS RISING

For some time now, state budget forecasters have predicted a tight revenue future for Missouri. Because of tax cuts designed to keep state revenue from exceeding constitutional caps limiting growth, plus an expected slowdown in the state's booming economy and a loss of retail sales taxes to e-commerce, doomsayers warned of lean times.

Throughout the 2000 legislative session, this gloomy budget outlook was considered to be fact by many members of the Legislature. The predictions were used by majority Democrats to kill any legislation to further reduce taxes. Thankfully, there were few serious calls for raising taxes. And the alleged revenue woes were also cited to cut down a number of proposals calling for massive new -- and, in most cases, unneeded -- spending.

So far it appears the dire budget predictions have missed the mark. The economy remains strong. Most revenue streams are flowing generously. And Internet sales aren't damaging sales tax receipts, which instead of declining are up nearly 8 percent. Even with the recent tax cuts, Missouri looks to finish fiscal year 2000, which ends June 30, with revenue growth of up to 5.5 percent over the previous year. The rate of growth may not be as high as the pile of bureaucrats with their eyes on additional taxpayer dollars , but it doesn't mean the state is headed for financial calamity anytime soon.

Predicting state revenue is like predicting the weather. You can make guesses, but the only way to know for sure is to look out the window and see what you've got.