Super trio moves to the front

Only two of the 12 playoff teams are set, and the AFC is particularly muddled.

At least Sunday's NFL games did what no other weekend has done this season, separating the real Super Bowl-caliber teams from the ones just hoping to get to San Diego next month.

The chief contenders are Tampa Bay, Oakland and Philadelphia. The Eagles get an asterisk -- the asterisk being, of course, Donovan McNabb's health for the playoffs.

There are other teams that look poised to make some noise in the postseason, of course. Green Bay, Tennessee, Miami and New England come to mind, as do San Francisco and New Orleans. Atlanta is probably a year and a couple of top wide receivers away.

But with three weeks to go in the regular season, the Bucs, Raiders and Eagles are the most likely to push on. And wouldn't Jon Gruden and Tampa Bay against his old pals from Oakland make an interesting Super Bowl?

A short rundown:

Tampa Bay (10-3). Warren Sapp said that at one point during the Bucs' 34-10 thrashing of Atlanta, Michael Vick told him: "I can't believe you guys are that fast." Sapp has been known to embellish a story, but in this case, Vick's alleged assessment of the Tampa defense is correct. It certainly was fast enough to hold down the fastest quarterback in NFL history.

The Bucs have an offense, too. Brad Johnson has stayed healthy all season and Keenan McCardell and Joe Jurevicius added to Keyshawn Johnson give the quarterback three big targets, although not quite ideal speed.

But no team has everything these days. And Tampa Bay's defense, featuring Sapp, Derrick Brooks, Simeon Rice, John Lynch and Ronde Barber, is as good as ever. It's allowed just 159 points, 48 fewer than Philadelphia, which ranks second.

The Eagles are why the Bucs need home-field advantage.

Tampa Bay has never won in temperatures below 40 degrees, has been knocked out of the playoffs in Philadelphia the last two years, and lost there again in October. The Bucs should win at the Lions and Bears (breaking the cold streak) and probably will beat Pittsburgh at home, but they need one Philadelphia loss. The Eagles are home to Washington and at Dallas and the Giants.

One positive for Tampa: The Bucs beat Green Bay and have a tiebreaker there, and no one wants to go to Lambeau in January.

Philadelphia (10-3). There's talk McNabb might be back from his broken ankle in time for the final game, on a Saturday at the Meadowlands. If not, he'd be rusty entering the playoffs. But if he is immobile for that one, he becomes a juicy target for Giants sackmaster Michael Strahan, who always handles tackle Jon Runyan.

Koy Detmer could be back next week for the game with the Redskins, who are far less than Dan Snyder and Steve Spurrier thought they would be.

The defense doesn't have as many Pro Bowlers as the Bucs' D, but it's carried the Eagles in McNabb's absence. Duce Staley is back to being one of the NFL's better running backs.

If McNabb is healthy and the Bucs have to come through Philadelphia, watch out.

Oakland (9-4). The over-the-hill gang is a year older and sans Gruden, but it hasn't lost a step. In fact, it's added 37-year-old Rod Woodson at safety and all he does is make big plays.

Sunday's 27-7 win in San Diego was notable for the effort by the defense, which held LaDainian Tomlinson to 57 yards on 18 carries after surrendering 153 to Tomlinson in an overtime loss in Oakland.

"Eleven guys flying to the ball," said another old newcomer, 36-year-old linebacker Bill Romanowski.

The Raiders won their first four, lost their next four and now have won five in a row. The schedule is tough -- at Miami, followed by home games with Denver and dangerous Kansas City. If the Raiders win out, the road to the Super Bowl goes through the Black Hole.

At the other end

It's clear now that Cincinnati has packed it in and could be on the way to 1-15. How else do you explain allowing 52 points to Carolina, which scored 20 points or more in only three of its first dozen games?

The obvious solution is to back up the truck, starting at the top, and declare the Bengals an expansion team. This is an organization whose idea of a significant free-agent signing is the underachieving Michael Westbrook.

Westbrook was released last month, saying: "It was a combination that they gave up on me and my heart wasn't in it."

Then there's Detroit, which is 5-24 since Matt Millen took over as president and hired Marty Mornhinweg as coach. And the Lions weren't bad when they got there -- they missed the playoffs in 2000 on a field goal in the final seconds of the last game of the season.

Typically, Detroit lost in Arizona on a mistake. Defensive lineman Robert Porcher grabbed Jake Plummer's facemask as he was sacking Plummer and forcing a fumble in overtime that would have put the Lions in position for an easy game-winning field goal. And the Cardinals had been ravaged by injuries and lost six in a row, including 49-0 in Kansas City the previous week.

Millen didn't bargain for this when he left the broadcast booth.