Sorry, but odds are against your team going unbeaten

The Sporting News

The buzz already is building in Louisville, Ky., and the Kentucky Derby is nine months away. But it's football -- not horse racing -- that has captured the fancy of the denizens of this river city.

This could be the biggest season in Louisville history -- bigger even than the 1990 campaign that concluded with a resounding win over Alabama in the Fiesta Bowl. The centerpiece of all the excitement is quarterback Dave Ragone, a 6-foot-4, 255-pounder who's as much bruiser as he is bomber. In fact, Ragone is a contact-seeking quarterback who gives as much as he receives. The senior, a two-time C-USA offensive player of the year, may receive a lot of hits early on as Louisville breaks in four new line starters.

While the possibilities of Ragone and the offense are intriguing, the main reason why many feel the Cardinals have a great chance to go unbeaten and snatch a BCS spot is a defense that returns 10 starters from a crew that ranked 10th in the nation in scoring defense in 2001.

The biggest hurdle to perfection is a Thursday night visit from Florida State on Sept. 26. The key will be how well a good but smallish Louisville defense holds on against what could one of the best offenses in the nation.

But before Louisville gets ahead of itself, it must beat rival Kentucky at home to open the season. And the third game of the year is at Colorado State, which has become one of the nation's best programs. Should the Cards emerge from the FSU game 5-0, they don't figure to be seriously tested again until traveling to Southern Miss on Nov. 14. Odds of going unbeaten: 4-1.

Following is a look at the chances of other teams with reasonable and not-so-reasonable chances to finish unbeaten:

Florida. Perfection is a near impossibility, with Miami (Fla.), LSU, Auburn and South Carolina all coming to the Swamp. Then there are trips to Tennessee, Ole Miss and Florida State. Odds: 50-1.

Florida State. The road slate features Miami, North Carolina State, Maryland and Louisville. Expect the Seminoles to protect their home turf, even with Florida and Notre Dame visiting. Odds: 3-1.

Georgia. The schedule opens (Clemson) and closes (Georgia Tech) with a bang. In between, there are visits to Alabama, Auburn and South Carolina and visits from Florida and Tennessee. Odds: 10-1.

Marshall. The Herd catches a break by playing at Virginia Tech in a year the Hokies appear down. It also catches a break in that Toledo isn't on the menu. A win at Blacksburg followed by a triumph over Central Florida, and the Herd could cruise to perfection. Odds: 3-2.

Miami (Fla.). The Big East games should be a breeze, with only a trip to Syracuse looking scary. But visits to Florida and Tennessee are frightful, and Florida State will visit Miami seeking revenge. Odds: 5-1.

Nebraska. Save for a game at Penn State, the nonconference schedule is doable. A win in Happy Valley, and the Huskers could be 8-0 as heading into the make-or-break part of their sked, with games at Texas A&M and Kansas State and visits from Texas and Colorado. Odds: 10-1.

Ohio State. The tough nonconference games are at home: Texas Tech and Washington State. The only scary Big Ten road games are at Wisconsin and Purdue, but each is beatable. Odds: 3-1.

Oklahoma. This is basically a three-game schedule: at home against Colorado, at Texas A&M and vs. Texas at Dallas. The Sooners benefit from dropping Kansas State and Nebraska in the scheduling rotation. Odds: 2-1.

Tennessee. Nine of its 12 games will be played within the state borders, though three are rugged: Florida, Alabama and Miami. The biggest test will come at Georgia and at South Carolina. Odds: 11-2.

Texas. This is soft for a second consecutive year. A nonleague trip to North Carolina will be more of an emotional challenge for Mack Brown than a physical one for Texas. The key will be finally slaying Oklahoma and winning at Kansas State and Nebraska. Odds: 3-1.

Washington State. The Cougers' run to perfection might be ended early by a Sept. 14 game at Ohio State. But win there and Wazzu could find itself favored in the rest of its games. Odds: 3-1.

Tom Dienhart is a columnist for The Sporting News