At the beginning of the season, Southeast Missouri State University men's basketball coach Gary Garner said he felt almost certain that the eventual Ohio Valley Conference champion would have at least four or five losses, and that there would be several teams contending for the title.
Now, as the OVC race heads into its final weeks, Garner's words are beginning to ring very true.
With the start of the OVC postseason tournament just about three weeks away, only two squads have as few as three league losses. And five of the OVC's 10 teams are within two games of each other in the loss column.
"The race is pretty well shaping up like I thought it would all along," said Garner.
Southeast began last week with a two-game lead in the loss column. But a pair of narrow defeats on the road by four points at Tennessee State and by three points in double-overtime at Austin Peay has thrown the conference race into a virtual dead heat.
The Indians (9-3) and Murray State (8-3) are in a virtual first-place tie, although Southeast technically holds a half-game lead over the Racers.
Fast-charging Tennessee Tech (8-4) is just one game behind Southeast while Eastern Illinois (7-5) is two games back.
Tennessee-Martin (5-5), while struggling recently, is still just two games back on the loss side. Middle Tennessee (6-6), the league's hottest team, has moved into contention by reeling off five straight victories. Austin Peay (6-6) has also come on recently.
Tennessee State (4-7) is in eighth place, followed by Morehead State (3-9) and Eastern Kentucky (2-10).
The top eight teams in the final standings qualify for the OVC tourney, with the top four squads earning first-round home games.
To be sure, the overall race is a far cry from what took place last season, when Murray State and Southeast totally ran away from the rest of the league.
The Racers went 16-2 last season to edge out the 15-3 Indians. No other conference squad had fewer than nine losses.
"I just didn't think there was any way there would be such a big difference this year between a couple of the conference teams and the rest of the league," said Garner. "I thought Murray State would be the only team with a chance to run away with it, but I didn't think anybody would."
Southeast's two losses last week were disappointing, especially since the Indians could have won both games. But Garner knows his team's margin for error is not very great, and if the Indians don't play at a relatively high level, they can lose to just about anybody in the OVC, particularly on the road.
"I think anybody in our league can beat anybody else on a given night," Garner said. "There just isn't that much difference between a lot of the teams."
Garner certainly couldn't fault his squad's effort during Saturday night's 67-64 double-overtime setback at Austin Peay.
The Indians battled back several times, scoring the last five points of regulation to force overtime, then getting a basket in the closing seconds of the first overtime to produce a second extra session.
But, as is always the case in that kind of game, a host of different factors could have turned the tide one way or the other.
At the end of regulation, Michael Stokes had a shot bounce around the rim for several moments before it barely rolled off at the buzzer. A fraction of an inch the other way and the Indians win.
Southeast hurt its cause by making just eight of 16 free throws in the game, including only four of 10 in regulation. And the Indians were outrebounded 40-30, including 16-7 on the offensive end.
"Any time you're involved in a game like that, a couple of bounces here and there and it's a different outcome," said Garner. "We had our chances, but our guys played their hearts out, and so did Austin Peay."
Having particularly big games for the Indians were Roderick Johnson and Stokes.
Johnson hit nine of 12 shots and scored 21 points, 11 coming in the second half and eight coming in the two overtimes. Johnson, who played 46 minutes, scored the final five points of the second half and his follow shot in the closing seconds of the first overtime forced a second extra frame.
Stokes was an iron man, playing all 50 minutes and hitting numerous clutch shots. The point guard scored 16 points on 7-for-12 shooting, and he just missed out on being the hero when his attempt at the end of regulation rolled off. Stokes also had six rebounds and four assists.
Brian Bunche was a warrior with seven points, nine rebounds and five blocked shots in 38 minutes.
Austin Peay's heroes were Nick Stapleton (26 points, including 11 in the overtimes), Mike Head (14 points, 4-for-5 3-pointers) and Joe Williams (14 points, 12 rebounds).
That trio helped pick up the slack after Austin Peay standout Trenton Hassell suffered an ankle injury 10 minutes into the game and did not return.
Hassell, the OVC's top player, scored just two points, 17 below his average.
Both teams played exceptionally well in overtime. Southeast hit five of 10 shots and had only two turnovers. Austin Peay hit eight of 13 shots and was not charged with a turnover.
Now the Indians will turn their attentions to a big week of home games in what generally figures to be a dandy of a week around the OVC. Most squads play three games, and there are some huge head-to-head matchups.
Southeast has three home games this week, facing hot Middle Tennessee Tuesday night, Tennessee-Martin Thursday night and Murray State Saturday afternoon in a widely anticipated rematch that will be nationally televised on ESPN2.
The Indians broke a 15-game losing streak against Murray State earlier this season, ending the Racers' 47-game home winning streak in the process.
When the Racers come to Cape Girardeau, first place in the OVC could very well be on the line. But, as Garner points out, a lot can happen between now and Saturday.
"We can't even begin to think about Murray State," Garner said. "Right now, all we can think about is Middle Tennessee. And after that game, it will be Tennessee-Martin. Then we'll start thinking about Murray State."
In the scrambled OVC race, that definitely seems to be the right way to approach things.
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