NFL keeps unpredictable theme

The theme was accentuated again Sunday: Predictable unpredictability is the norm in the NFL, particularly the continued success of teams with low expectations (Bears, Patriots, Browns) and the decline of those supposed to be playoff bound (Giants, Saints, Colts, Titans).

Some examples:

If the season ended this week, seven of the 12 playoff spots would go to teams that weren't there last season. No big deal: a year ago, six of the 12 playoff teams were newcomers.

In the last two years, the four teams that made it to the Super Bowl were a combined 27-37 the previous season (Ravens 8-8 vs. Giants 7-9, and Rams 4-12 vs. Titans 8-8). Picture the Bears, (5-11 in 2000) vs. the Steelers (9-7). Could happen -- both are 8-2.

And lurking just outside the playoffs are two shocking contenders -- the Patriots and Redskins. By beating the Eagles Sunday, the Redskins became the first team to win five in a row after starting 0-5.

"I don't think anyone thought we'd be back this quick but I don't think anyone thought we'd be 0-5," said QB Tony Banks, who's making quite a turnaround of his own after being cut by the Cowboys a couple of weeks into training camp.

The reason usually given is the salary cap constraints placed on winners, who sometimes pay more than the going rate to re-sign players -- the Giants and Jason Sehorn are one example.

Another reason is that it takes just a couple of players to turn a team around. Brian Urlacher and Mike Brown of the Bears and LaVar Arrington of the Redskins are examples, second-year men who have come on in a big way. So is New England's Tom Brady, who threw four TD passes against New Orleans Sunday and is now 6-3 since taking over for Drew Bledsoe.

Arrington turned Washington's season around by himself with an interception return for a TD against Carolina, when the Skins trailed 14-0 in the fourth quarter and were ready to drop to 0-6.

And Urlacher and Brown are the linchpins of the Chicago defense.

Then there's the letdown factor -- champions tend to let down the next season, whether they realize it or not. Yes, the Ravens have had more injuries, but they've already allowed 187 points after giving up just 165 last year, a modern NFL record.

The Steelers could threaten that mark. Despite giving up 24 points in Tennessee on Sunday, they have surrendered just 121 in 10 games. Other than Minnesota at home this week, they don't face any potent offenses for the rest of the season.

Home field disadvantageHome teams were 3-11 Sunday and 5-10 a week ago. Are the last two weeks, in which home teams are 8-21, another new trend?

For the season, home teams still hold an 81-76 edge. But consider two division leaders, the Eagles and Jets, who are unbeaten on the road but a combined 4-7 at home.

Some of it can be explained by the schedule.

The Eagles had a bad home loss to Arizona. The other three are to sizzling Washington, the Rams and the Raiders -- the current favorites to meet in the Super Bowl.

The Jets have lost at home to the Rams and 49ers, who have the two best records in the NFC, and in the season opener to the Colts, who were a very good team that day.

But it seems contagious.

The Vikings had been 4-1 at home and 0-4 on the road until they lost in the Metrodome to the Bears on Sunday night. Randy Moss disappeared again -- maybe he limits his prime-time heroics to Monday nights on ABC, not Sunday nights on ESPN.

Mount Mora"Playoffs? Don't talk about playoffs," Jim Mora said after Peyton Manning threw four interceptions against the 49ers in a 40-21 loss. "Are you kidding me? Playoffs? I'm just hoping we can win a game, another game."

An eruption by the Colts' coach occurs just about annually. His most famous came in 1996, when he quit the Saints in midseason after a tirade following a loss in Carolina. In a calmer moment later, he acknowledged that his 10 1/2 seasons with one team were too many in one place.

Sunday's explosion came after the team's third straight loss, dropping it to 4-6.

What was unusual is that by implication, Mora seemed to be blaming Manning, whom he has known since Papa Archie brought his teen-age son to the Saints' training camp. Manning, a Mora favorite since he arrived, has carried the Colts in his four seasons there, and is playing with a broken jaw and without Edgerrin James, his most important offensive colleague.

"We threw that game away," Mora said. "We gave them the game. It was pitiful, absolutely pitiful. Four interceptions? Four interceptions!"

There may have been something else working. The defense that forced five Indianapolis turnovers is coached by Mora's son. The entire family was at the game.

"He saw his dad at midfield after the game," 49ers coach Steve Mariucci said of his defensive coordinator, who's also named Jim. "It's not easy for either one of them."