As season winds down, NFL is up for grabs

The New York Jets won their opening game, then lost four straight. Now they've won four in a row and five of six heading into Monday night's game in Oakland.

Why?

Two tirades by coach Herman Edwards? No. More likely, it's the result of a team coming together after a bunch of offseason changes.

The Jets, after all, were one of the AFC East favorites, in large part because of free-agent upgrades. It just took a while for the new players, especially on defense, to come together, and for Edwards to decide that third-year quarterback Chad Pennington fit his offensive system better than 39-year-old Vinny Testaverde.

But streaks like that are the rule all over the NFL. Parity is so prevalent that 14 of the AFC's 16 teams enter this weekend between 7-4 and 5-6, all with at least a shot at making the playoffs.

How far away is the season when 32 teams finish 8-8? If Cincinnati weren't around to guarantee a losing team, it might happen soon.

But all those 8-8s would come in streaks -- at least the way this season is being played.

"Teams on winning streaks aren't as good as they think they are, and teams on losing streaks aren't as bad as they seem," says Hall of Fame coach Marv Levy, who took Buffalo to four straight Super Bowls in the early '90s -- a feat that probably won't be duplicated in these parity-filled years.

"Winning helps you get the momentum to win the next one until you get overconfident and start losing."

There are plenty of examples of Levy's theory.

Defending champion New England opened with three wins, then lost four straight, and now has won three of four. Oakland won its first four, averaging 40.5 points a game; lost three in which it averaged 16; and now has averaged 34 points in three straight wins.

NFC champion St. Louis started 0-5, won five straight, then lost last week in Washington in Kurt Warner's first game back after breaking a pinkie. Typical for this season: Warner, a two-time league MVP and the 2000 Super Bowl MVP, is 0-5 as a starter. Marc Bulger, who started the season as a third-stringer, is 5-0 in his place.

Just last weekend, inconsistency that leads to parity was rampant:

-- Tennessee, on a five-game winning streak, went to Baltimore and lost 13-12 to a team without Ray Lewis and Chris McAlister, its two best defenders.

The Titans outgained the Ravens 402-199, but had four turnovers, plus a touchdown called back by a penalty. Then Steve McNair missed a wide-open Derrick Mason in the end zone for what almost surely would have been the winning TD.

-- The New York Giants, who had won three straight to move into playoff contention, lost 16-14 to expansion Houston as special teams gave away at least 12 points.

-- Philadelphia, with quarterback Donovan McNabb out, went to San Francisco and blew away the 49ers 38-17 as Koy Detmer performed well replacing McNabb before dislocating his left elbow. Both teams were 7-3 entering the game.

That game is a perfect example of Levy's theory of parity.

"With McNabb out, San Francisco got complacent," he says. "The Eagles have a very good defense, a good running game, and the rest of the players were itching to demonstrate that their offense is more than just McNabb. Detmer performed, and so did the rest of the team."

As for parity, Baltimore remains the perfect example.

The Ravens were forced by the salary cap to shed players in the offseason; they started with just 16 from the Super Bowl winners of two seasons ago. Injuries (Lewis, McAlister, Chris Redman) have robbed them of others.

But they've stayed competitive (5-6) because Brian Billick is a good coach, and because they've drafted well. Tight end Todd Heap, a second-year player, is their leading receiver, and they have three rookies starting on defense, led by safety Ed Reed, this year's No. 1 draft pick. Other good young players are sprinkled throughout the lineup.

"We'll have cap room coming up," owner Art Modell says. "We'll be right back where we were."

In this league, the Ravens could keep their core, add a bunch of free agents in the offseason -- and be 5-6 or 6-5 at this stage of 2003.