Analysis points to 5-6 record for Southeast football

When a football team is coming off a 2-9 season and has been picked to finish last in the Ohio Valley Conference, there generally isn't a whole lot of excitement or anticipation surrounding the program.

But a coaching change always seems to give the masses renewed optimism and hope.

Which is where Southeast Missouri State fans no doubt find themselves right now, as the Redhawks prepare to kick off the Tony Samuel era Saturday night at Austin Peay.

I wrote last week that I really had no idea how the 2006 Redhawks might fare, but that I would probably venture more of a guess today.

Well, here goes nothing.

First of all, let me begin by saying that the outlook might not be nearly as bleak as Southeast supporters probably fear, given last year's disappointment and the expectations of others around the OVC reflected in the league's preseason poll.

Think back to 2005. Sure, a young Southeast squad flopped big-time, which led to coach Tim Billings' resignation after six seasons.

But, after a brutal nonconference schedule that produced the expected three losses prior to OVC play, it's not like the Redhawks were physically overmatched by most of their conference opponents.

The Redhawks finished seventh in the nine-team OVC at 2-6, but if just three or four more plays had gone their way in last-second losses to Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee Tech, along with a three-point setback to Tennessee-Martin, they're a fourth-place 5-3 and Billings is probably still in Cape Girardeau.

So Southeast really wasn't that far off from being a respectable OVC team last year, and with plenty of experience on hand -- there are 18 returning starters and 25 total seniors -- it's not that far-fetched to think the Redhawks won't be able to at least compete in this mediocre league.

Then there is the matter of the nonconference schedule, which has been watered-down considerably after being so demanding the past three years.

Since 2003, Southeast has entered every conference schedule winless. The last time the Redhawks started out 2-0 was 2002 -- which just happened to result in an 8-4 season under Billings that marked the program's best record since 1969.

There don't appear to be many sure things about the 2006 Redhawks, but -- and Samuel will probably cringe when he reads this because the last thing he wants is his players thinking their first two opponents are pushovers -- I'm betting they open with a pair of wins. A loss to either Austin Peay or Missouri-Rolla, which visits Houck Stadium Sept. 9, would rank as a monumental upset.

Austin Peay (2-9 last year) is just now returning to scholarship football, but the Govs will have only about half of the Division I-AA maximum of 63 scholarships this year. And 54 of their 87 players are freshmen. If this were professional sports, the Govs would be an expansion franchise.

Missouri-Rolla (7-4 last year) had a solid season in 2005 against an extremely weak schedule after getting out of the MIAA -- where it was that league's punching bag for a long time -- but the improving Miners are still nothing more than a mediocre, at best, Division II team.

And to demonstrate what kind of a program Austin Peay had going without scholarships, the Govs lost to Missouri-Rolla 45-3 last year.

But before you get the impression I'm knocking Southeast's early schedule -- far from it.

When a program is down, as Southeast's is right now, it doesn't make much sense to face one of the toughest nonleague slates in the country and get run into the ground, which is what basically happened the past three seasons.

I think it's wise to schedule a couple of victories -- the other nonconference game will be a certain loss at Division I-A Arkansas, but that doesn't come until Oct. 14, well into the league season -- to see if some early confidence and momentum might carry over into OVC play. Trying it the other way sure hasn't worked lately.

So I'm assuming the Redhawks win two of their three non-conference games, which leaves the eight OVC contests.

I don't see the Redhawks beating any of the expected top three in the league: preseason favorite Eastern Kentucky, although Southeast nearly pulled off a major upset last year; defending champion Eastern Illinois and Jacksonville State.

But the other five conference games -- against Murray State, Samford, Tennessee-Martin, Tennessee State and Tennessee Tech -- I see right now as pretty much tossups if not better.

The law of averages leads me to believe the Redhawks won't win or lose all five of those games. I'll go somewhere in the middle and say they'll take three of them.

So that would leave the Redhawks with a 5-6 overall record and a 3-5 OVC mark -- that's what I'm officially predicting -- and I wouldn't be stunned if they tacked on an additional win to finish 6-5 and 4-4.

Nothing earth-shattering on either count, but it would be an improvement over last season and certainly wouldn't be bad for the first year of Samuel's rebuilding project.

I am sure, however, that Southeast's coaches and players want more than that -- so now go prove me wrong.

If it happens, I'll be the first person to offer congratulations.

And I'm sure Redhawks fans will line up right behind me.

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In addition to anticipating a 2-0 start, there is one other prediction I'm going to make that I feel fairly confident in.

I think Southeast fans will see a dramatic improvement this year in cutting down on penalties and blocked punts.

The Redhawks were by far the OVC's most penalized team last season -- both in yardage and number of infractions -- and they had six punts blocked.

With Samuel and his staff's attention to detail and focus on discipline, I would be very surprised if the above figures don't get considerably better.

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I know Southeast has slipped over the past two years and Billings took some heat from fans, but people shouldn't forget the good Billings did in resurrecting, at least for a while, what had been a lifeless program.

That 8-4 record in 2002 was a monumental achievement. And Southeast posted consecutive solid OVC marks, going 4-2 in 2002 and 5-3 in 2003.

Considering how futile Southeast football has been for most of its Division I history -- with just two winning seasons in 15 years -- those are major accomplishments.

They're easy to dismiss in light of 2-9 and 3-8 records the past two years, but they shouldn't be forgotten.

It will be interesting to see if Samuel can not only get the program going but also sustain success, which is something that eluded Billings.

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While Southeast begins the season Saturday at Austin Peay, there is an intriguing opener that day involving the Redhawks' Division I-A opponent.

Arkansas, after two subpar seasons, is being projected by most prognosticators to be among the nation's most improved teams this year. Sports Illustrated ranked the Razorbacks 24th.

Arkansas opens the season at home against powerhouse USC -- which embarrassed the Razorbacks 70-17 last year in Los Angeles.

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Regarding the story I wrote in Friday's edition about future Division I-A opponents for Southeast football:

While the university has signed contracts to play Cincinnati in both the 2007 and 2009 seasons, athletic director Don Kaverman said Southeast has a verbal commitment from a Division I-A opponent for 2008, but no contract has yet been signed.

I've heard that the 2008 foe in question just might be Missouri, so we'll see if that comes to fruition.

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I have read some ridiculous Fan Speak comments over the years, but the one last Sunday criticizing Jess Bolen for allowing Bob Gibson to sit in the Capahas' dugout during the National Baseball Congress World Series in Wichita, Kan., might just take the cake. Gibson also was criticized.

First of all, Jess told me that he has had plenty of parents of Capahas players -- as Gibson is -- sit in the dugout at various times during his 40-year career as the team's manager.

I've witnessed this, and I've seen other longtime Capahas followers who have sat in the dugout. Summer baseball is simply a fairly relaxed atmosphere, and this is a relatively routine practice with many similar squads.

But even if Jess had made an exception for only Gibson, what's the big deal? To not think the Capahas' players would feel honored to have a Hall of Famer in their presence is foolish, as Rick Wieser's nice letter in today's section attests.

Marty Mishow is a sports writer for the Southeast Missourian.