COUNTDOWN IS ON FOR CONGRESS; 8TH DISTRICT A 2-WOMAN RACE

In a field of five candidates, the 8th District congressional contest boils down to a two-woman race.

The other three candidates are little more than a sideshow, political observers note.

The real contest is between Democrat Emily Firebaugh of Farmington and independent/Republican Jo Ann Emerson of Cape Girardeau.

If Emerson wins Tuesday's general election, she will be the first person in 122 years to be elected to Congress from Missouri as neither a Republican, nor a Democrat.

The last time that occurred was in 1874 when Liberal Party candidate Rezin A. DeBolt was elected to Congress in northwest Missouri.

Emerson, 46, is seeking to succeed her late husband, Bill Emerson.

Republican Bill Emerson served as the district's congressman for 16 years. He died in June of lung cancer after earlier filing for re-election.

His death occurred too late for Jo Ann Emerson to file for the general election. To get on the ballot, she filed as an independent.

But she is an independent in name only. Republican Party leaders are supporting Emerson.

She is on the ballot as a Republican in the special election, which will be held jointly with Tuesday's general election.

The winner of the special election will fill the congressional seat until the start of the new term in January. The winner of the general election will take office in January.

Political observers assume it will be the same person -- either Emerson or Firebaugh -- but voters could elect two different candidates in the separate elections.

Besides Emerson and Firebaugh, the general-election field includes: Richard Kline of Gipsy, who won the Republican primary; Libertarian Greg Tlapek and Natural Law Party candidate David Zimmer, both of Cape Girardeau.

Tlapek joins Emerson and Firebaugh as candidates in the special-election contest.

Both Emerson and Firebaugh have spent a lot of money in the race. It is estimated both candidates combined will spend about $1.4 million in this year's congressional race.

Firebaugh has painted Emerson as a Washington, D.C., lobbyist and political soul mate of Newt Gingrich, who would cut Medicare.

Emerson has countered that Firebaugh is a pro-abortion liberal, who has scared senior citizens by falsely accusing Republicans of trying to cut Medicare.

The 8th District race takes on national significance because it is an open seat where there is no incumbent running, said Dr. Peter Bergerson, chairman of the political science department at Southeast Missouri State University.

That is important because incumbents win 98 percent of the time.

Republicans took control of the House of Representatives in the 1994 election. Two years later, Democrats hope to win back control of the House of Representatives.

But Bergerson and other political scientists predict it will be close, with the Republicans or Democrats in control by the slimmest of majorities.

Whichever party has control, it will be by less than five seats, Bergerson predicted.

Even if Democrats secure a majority, it may not hold up. Some Southern Democrats may switch to the Republican Party and return control to the GOP, Bergerson said.

With such narrow margins, the 8th District race takes on added importance, Bergerson said.

"There probably are at most 50 seats and probably more likely 30 seats that control of the House of Representatives will turn on," he said.

Many of those are open seats or ones held by incumbents who have served only a short time, he said.

But another political scientist at Southeast, Dr. Russell Renka, said the 8th District isn't a typical open seat.

The incumbent's widow is in the race. Firebaugh has to compete not just with Jo Ann Emerson, but with the legacy of the late Bill Emerson -- a popular congressman, Renka said.

Renka said the 8th District is more about local politics than national trends.

Bergerson said Kline could be the election's wild card. A good showing by Kline could split the Republican vote and give the victory to Firebaugh.

Straight-party voting on the GOP ticket would help Kline, Bergerson said.

Kline would have to garner about 10 percent of the vote to make a difference, Bergerson said.

But Renka said he doesn't believe Kline will do that well.

Kline is the Republican candidate in the general election sort of by default, Bergerson said.

If Jo Ann Emerson had been on the primary ballot, she would have won and Kline would be sitting out this race, Bergerson said.