STRICTLY BUSINESS: 'BEIGE BOOK' SAYS GROWTH CARRIED OVER FROM 1998

Demand for workers will remain near seasonal expectations during the second quarter.

Another giant retailer will join the Cape Girardeau market during the same quarter.

Everything is on "go" for the new aircraft manufacturing facility at the Cape Girardeau Regional Airport.

And the report is still positive for a new telecommunications center in Cape Girardeau.

The economic growth of 1998 has carried into the new year with good consumer spending, brisk construction activity and increasing demand for labor, according to sources from a number of fronts -- "Beige Book" reports from the Federal Reserve, Manpower Inc. Employment Outlook Survey and the Cape Girardeau Area Industrial Recruitment Association.

Workforce opportunities will remain strong in Southeast Missouri, says the latest Manpower employment survey. The quarterly poll of local companies reveals that 40 percent of the firms plan to increase staffs during the April-May-June period, and 47 percent of the companies plan changes in employment. Some 10 percent of the companies expect cutbacks.

"The spring months typically `jump-start' the job market as businesses emerge from the winter lull," said Peggy Gates, local Manpower spokeswoman. For the coming season, staff additions are most apparent in construction, manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade.

Results of a survey conducted by the industrial recruitment association for a communication service company were encouraging, said recruiting director Mitch Robinson. The results have been forwarded to the company, which requested anonymity. The company, which has indicated a strong interest in putting a center in Cape Girardeau, will employ about 250 workers.

Aircraft manufacturer Zenair of Canada Ltd. and Independent Manufacturing and Development Co., announced plans recently to start assembling planes at the airport, and ShopKo Stores Inc. will open next month in the former Venture space at the West Park Mall.

Meanwhile, a combination of thriving economic growth and absent inflation detected in a report known as the "Beige Book," after the color of its cover, implies Fed policy-makers probably will opt for no change in interest rates when they meet March 30.

The "Beige Book," a compilation of anecdotal information collected by the Fed's 12 regional banks, confirmed statistical reports showing the economy maintained its vigor through January and February despite continuing problems in agriculture, manufacturing and energy production.

Six banks -- New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Va., St. Louis, Minneapolis and San Francisco -- reported stronger manufacturing and five banks -- Boston, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago and Dallas -- reported mixed conditions. Only one, Kansas City, said manufacturing remained weak.

Meanwhile, post-holiday discounting and mild weather in some regions, contributed to continued strength in consumer spending. Motor vehicle sales increased, and furniture sales benefited from thriving home sales. Agriculture, however, continued to be plagued by low farm commodity prices, and an increasing number of farmers were under financial stress. Also, three districts -- Minneapolis, Kansas City and San Francisco -- reported that falling oil prices were causing some oil and gas wells to be withdrawn from production."

In a speech early last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that despite near-term challenges in agriculture, most farmers and farm lenders remained optimistic about the sector's long-term prospects, and that the overall economy has retained its vigor.

Meanwhile, labor markets have remained tight everywhere, and finding qualified workers has become more difficult in several districts.

The "Beige Book" is issued eight times a year. Although it is not an in-depth report, the Federal Reserve uses it as one of many tools to help determine the direction of monetary policy.

The district economy is still operating at a high level and growing moderately says the 8th District report. The 8th District, headquartered in St. Louis,, include Federal Reserve Bank branches in Little Rock, Ark.; Louisville, Ky.; and Memphis, Tenn. The district includes all of Arkansas, Eastern Missouri, Southern Illinois and Indiana, western Kentucky and Tennessee and northern Mississippi.

The district's economy is still operating at a high level and growing moderately, said Charles B. Henderson of the St. Louis office. "Weakness in the agricultural sector is the only notable exception," he said.

District positives include:

-- The district's position as a distribution center continued to solidify, as UPS and FedEX continue to attract business to their hubs.

-- Auto production is expected to increase because of an extra assembly line at a Ford plant at Louisville.

-- Most metropolitan areas ended the year with more residential building permits, and in some areas, it was record year.

-- Continued growth in sales has tightened employment through the district.

-- Many new businesses have started throughout the district.

Heading the negatives were the downward trend of crop and livestock. At the other end of the spectrum, cotton prices rallied a bit after falling to a five-year low in February. A major survey of U.S. cotton farmers' 1999 planting intentions show a modest increase in acreage from last year. But some southern areas, farmers are planning to devote more acres to soybeans this year.

B. Ray Owen is business editor for the Southeast Missourian.