Streak of solid hiring bolsters confidence about 2015

WASHINGTON -- A healthy month of hiring in December capped the best year for U.S. job growth since 1999, demonstrating that employers are more confident than they've been since the recession began.

Nearly 3 million jobs were added in 2014, and continued solid hiring is expected to propel the economy this year to its fastest growth in a decade. The gains are putting distance between the strengthening American economy and struggling nations overseas.

"Last year was a truly breakout year for the labor market," said James Marple, an economist at TD Securities. "Businesses are increasingly looking to hire."

Friday's report from the Labor Department showed employers added 252,000 jobs in December and 50,000 more in October and November combined than the government had estimated. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.6 percent from 5.8 percent in November. The rate is at its lowest point since 2008.

The government's report did point to weaknesses, notably in Americans' paychecks, which have barely kept up with inflation during the 5 1/2-year recovery. In December, average hourly pay actually fell.

"The continued listless performance of hourly earnings is an ongoing frustration," said Richard Moody, an economist at Regions Financial.

And one reason the unemployment rate fell last month had nothing to do with more hiring: Many of the jobless gave up looking for work and so were no longer counted as unemployed.

Still, while December's hiring did not match November's huge 353,000 gain, job growth in the final three months of 2014 averaged a robust 289,000. That was up from the 239,000 average for the third quarter of 2014.

The unemployment rate is near the 5.2 percent to 5.5 percent range the Federal Reserve considers consistent with a healthy economy -- one reason the Fed has been expected to raise interest rates from record lows by midyear.

Yet for now, plummeting oil prices and weak pay growth are helping keep inflation lower than the Fed's 2 percent target rate. Many economists think inflation may fail to reach 1 percent this year. A result is the Fed could feel pressure to avoid raising rates anytime soon.

"There is still room for stimulus without having to worry about inflation taking off," said Michael Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute.

Most economists forecast the U.S. economy will expand more than 3 percent this year. If it does, 2015 would mark the first time in a decade that growth has reached that level for a calendar year.

In December, hiring was widespread across most industries. Construction firms added 48,000 jobs, the most since January. Manufacturers gained 17,000, restaurants and bars 44,000.

One industry where hiring slowed in December was retailing, which cut back after having staffed up in November for the holiday shopping season.

Overall, American businesses have shrugged off economic weakness overseas and continue to hire at solid rates. The U.S. economy's steady improvement is striking compared with the weakness in much of the world.

Europe is barely growing, and its unemployment rate is nearly double the U.S. level. Japan, the world's third-largest economy, is in recession. Russia's economy is cratering as oil prices plummet. China is straining to manage a slowdown. Brazil and others in Latin America are struggling.

Fears about cheaper oil spooked investors last week before financial markets recovered. But most economists remain optimistic lower energy prices will benefit U.S. consumers and many businesses.

Though 2014 job growth was the best since 1999, other measures were less encouraging. Average hourly pay rose 1.7 percent last year, less than half the 3.5 percent gain in 1999, a pace more typical of a strong economy.

Hourly wages fell to $24.57 in December from $24.62 in November. Hourly pay over the past two months has risen a penny.

As hiring rises and the unemployment rate falls, those pressures should, at least in theory, compel employers to raise pay to attract workers. But that trend has yet to emerge.

Consider CMIT Solutions, a fast-growing IT services company based in Austin, Texas, with 800 employees in 147 U.S. cities. CEO Jeff Connally says his firm plans to add 80 to 120 jobs. But in most cities, he doesn't expect to have to raise pay to attract employees.

Despite weak pay growth, strong hiring is providing relief to the unemployed. During 2014, the unemployment rate fell 1.1 percentage points, similar to 2013's decline of 1.2 points. But there was a difference: Last year's drop occurred though the number of Americans working or looking for work rose by more than 1 million.

That's a change from 2013, when the unemployment rate's decline was fueled by an exodus of about 500,000 workers. Those people gave up on their job hunts and were no longer counted as unemployed.

The job gains are healing some of the scars left by the recession. The number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months fell 28 percent last year. And the number working part time who would prefer full-time work dropped 13 percent.