An industry in flux

~ Travel was healthy in 2005 despite natural disasters, but concerns remain for 2006.

The Asian tsunami happened more than a year ago, but the tourism industry in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and the Maldives is still being stalled by a lack of infrastructure.

And that wasn't the only recent natural disaster. In 2005, hurricanes Rita, Katrina and Wilma cut incredible swaths of destruction up and down the American Gulf Coast and Mexico's Mayan Riviera.

Cancun was also hit badly as Wilma interrupted the plans of thousands of tourists.

All in all, it wasn't a great year for tourism.

"We lost a lot of business to the disasters," said Vicky Baumann, a travel agent with Travel Horizons in Perryville, Mo. "We had a lot of groups going to Cancun, and I flew down there to look at the hotels to see if they were up and running. They were not."

Some rebooked their travel plans to other destinations. Many did not, opting to wait for more weather-friendly years, she said.

Now, the travel industry is a business in flux. Finally outlasting many of the flying fears after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, many area travel agencies were just beginning to rebound when the disasters struck, causing damage in popular destinations, mainly Florida.

Still, according to the Travel Industry Association of America, 2005 turned out to be a good year for the U.S. travel industry, with leisure travel by U.S. residents rising 4 percent last year and international travel jumping 7 percent. Spending by domestic and international travelers increased 7.8 percent for 2005 to nearly $646 billion. There was, however, slowed growth in last year's final quarter, a trend that was expected to continue through the first quarter of 2006.

Moderate growth forecast

That, the association said, would contribute to an only moderate growth forecast for 2006.

The industry is holding strong, said Dr. Suzanne Cook, senior vice president of research at the association. But a number of indicators, such as vacillating consumer confidence and the sharp rise of energy costs are having an effect on consumer and business attitudes, she said.

"I don't expect Americans to stop traveling," she said. "I simply think they will be more careful when it comes to making travel decisions."

Domestic business travel was expected to be constrained for the first quarter of this year, she said, due to much slower growth in corporate profit and rising travel costs. The association is predicting a 1.6 percent increase for 2006.

On a more optimistic note, she said, a number of experts at TIA's recent Marketing Outlook Forum expected a better outlook for meetings and group business travel.

Cape Girardeau Regional Airport manager Bruce Loy said the total number of passengers flying in and out of the airport has also been increasing in recent months.

For February, the numbers were up 32 percent from this time last year.

"We're hoping to see them go up even more with the fourth round-trip flight we've added," Loy said. "Obviously, that's the whole point."

Carolyn Kempf, owner of Elite Travel in Cape Girardeau, said that Sept. 11 was "devastating" to the industry. She said that now travel is back to pre-Sept. 11 levels.

"But it has been a crawl," she said. "But every year got a little better."

Elite Travel wasn't badly affected by the tsunami, she said. But when Cancun was hit by storms, it caused problems. She said there were 27 storms from June to December last year, which was unprecedented.

"How that affected us, we had to basically do all of our work twice," she said. "Most people still traveled, but they came to us and said they wanted to go somewhere else."

So this year, they are trying to help their customers consider the options, especially considering that there is talk of having a year like last year when it comes to storms. She said that if a customer asks about Cancun during June to November, the travel agent points out that's hurricane season.

In the past, peak hurricane season was September and October, she said. But after last year, they have no idea, she said.

Mike Right is a spokesman for AAA, which has a travel office in Cape Girardeau. He said there's no question that Katrina and the other disasters affected tourism dollars. But he said that the location of where the tsunami hit was not a big spot for American tourists.

Right doesn't expect there to be a long-term impact. When the affected areas recover and the infrastructure is repaired, people will continue to travel there.

"We're going to see those areas begin to build back fairly quickly," he said. "But it will take a couple years for those areas to enjoy the tourism they once enjoyed there before the disasters."

Right said there's nothing on the horizon for the travel industry to be too concerned about except another natural disaster or a terrorist attack.

"The potential for those things are always going to be out there," he said. "It's like the New Madrid Fault. It's there, but people don't live their lives in anticipation of it. You just live your life."

smoyers@semissourian.com

335-6611, extension 137

Travel facts

* Travel and tourism is a $1.3 trillion industry in the United States.

* Travel and tourism generates $100 billion in tax revenue for local, state and federal governments.

* The travel industry is one of the country's largest employers with 7.3 million direct travel-related jobs.

* International travelers spent $94 billion in the United States in 2004.

* About 2.6 million hotel rooms are rented every day in the United States.

* Spending by resident and international travelers in the United States averaged $1.7 billion a day, $74 million an hour, $1.2 million a minute and $20,000 a second.

SOURCE: Travel Industry Association of America