STRICTLY BUSINESS: NAFTA, TWO YEARS LATER: JOB GAINS OR JOB LOSSES?

NAFTA, which was lobbied through a reluctant Congress in November 1993, went into effect Jan. 1, 1994.

Two years later, there is still a continuing debate over whether it has resulted in job gains or job losses.

In other words, it's still too early to tell whether the North American Free Trade Agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada is a home run, an error or perhaps a strikeout.

Before NAFTA, estimates were that it could result in up to 550,000 long-term job gains and 900,000 counterbalance job losses, according to the U.S. Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service (CRS).

In its first two years, NAFTA has primarily served to encourage trade, plant relocations, job gain and job loss trends. Job-effect estimates, according to a recent CRS report for Congress, have been developed by different methods and may not capture all of the job gains or losses.

Roughly 52,500 primary job losses, from 375 to 400 plants that have closed or cut back operations, have been certified by the Department of Labor as eligible for training or income replacement benefits under the NAFTA-Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program.

These workers were certified because imports "contributed importantly" to their job loss, or their plants relocated to Mexico or Canada.

The 52,500 figure may not capture all NAFTA job losers. According to the CRS report, an additional 100,000 or more secondary job losses -- aboaut twice the number of primary job losses -- may have occurred in supplier or distributor industries, possibly raising the total job loss to about 150,000.

But while NAFTA has resulted in job losses in certain import-sensitive industries, it has also resulted in job gains in export-oriented industries. Overall job losses have been reported from 50,000 to 300,000.

"What it all amounts to," said Bruce Kent, "is that we don't know how many jobs have been lost or gained."

Kent, Small Business Administration (SBA) regional administrator of the four-state region of Missouri, Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska, was in Cape Girardeau last week. He was positive about NAFTA.

"It'll be two or three more years before we see the many benefits of NAFTA," said Kent. "With all the new technology, the U.S. is producing more products than ever. We have to find new customers for those products."

A few more years should offer a better picture of job changes on the American landscape.

Exports to Mexico and Canada over the past two years were up $32 billion -- $23 billion in 1994 and $9 billion in 1995.

Based on the 52,500 job-loss figure provided by the CRS Report, 1,184 of those were in Missouri, where eight plants have closed, some of them relocating to Mexico. One of the plants, Tri-Con Industries of Cape Girardeau, resulted in a loss of 200 jobs.

NAFTA is also blamed in a dozen plant closings in Illinois, with a loss of 2,016 jobs; eight Kentucky plant closings with loss of 481 employees; 10 closings in Tennessee with 1,460 job losses; and four closings in Arkansas with job losses of 2,750. New York has been the big loser, with 30 closings for 7,593 job losses.

Backgrounding a bit, before NAFTA, a number of legislators expressed their "likes" for the concept of the controversial agreement, but not the way it was written.

Most had no problem with the Canadian portion of the agreement.

Sen. Paul Simon, D-Ill., said it could create some problems in the long term.

"In Canada, the going wage for laborers is about even with the U.S. level and that's an important factor," said Simon in mid-1993. "But Mexican laborers are working for $1 to $1.15 an hour. That could be problem.

Two Southern Illinois representatives, Glenn Poshard, D-Marion, and Jerry Costello, D-Belleville, opposed NAFTA, and voted against it, citing the wage base for Mexican workers who offer low-wage competition to compete against the United States.

Southeast Missouri's representative, Bill Emerson, R-Cape Girardeau, was undecided about NAFTA until late in 1993, when he announced his support for the pact, because of its agricultural benefits.

"Missouri farm products are a good fit for Mexico," said Emerson. "A stronger Mexico will buy American goods."

When NAFTA came to vote, the House passed it 234-200. Emerson, Mel Hancock, R-Springfield, and Ike Shelton, D-Lexington, were the only members of the Missouri House delegation to vote for the trade agreement. Seventy-five percent of Republican congressmen voted in favor, 40 percent of Democrats did.

A 61-38 roll call capped the monthlong debate in the Senate. NAFTA won the support of 34 Republicans -- including Sen. Christopher Bond and Jack Danforth -- and 27 Democrats.

The biggest concern is the same as 1993 -- Mexican labor.

It is hoped Mexico will eventually upgrade its pay scales to place the United States on a level playing field.

New route to emergency center

Some changes are taking place at St. Francis Medical Center.

Starting Tuesday, the drive between the front of the hospital and the emergency entrance will be blocked.

"People will have to use the access drive from Gordonville Road east of St. Francis Drive, to reach the emergency facilities," said Jay Wolz, of the hospital's public relations department. Starting May 1, the walk-in emergency center entrance will be relocated to a door in front of the hospital near the main entrance.

All this is due to construction work on the medical center's new multi-story medical office building.

The new emergency entrance will be used over the next 18 months to two years, noted Wolz. The ambulance entrance will continue to be available to emergency vehicles during this time.

"We hope to keep the inconvenience to a minimum." said Wolz, adding that additional volunteers and employees will be assigned to the temporary emergency entrance to escort people where they need to go.

"We will continue to provide emergency medical services during the medical office building construction," added Wolz. The only thing that's changing is how people reach our services."

Groundwork and construction of the 100,000-square-foot, multi-story medical office building and an adjacent garage east of the hospital, started more than a year ago. Both the medical building and the garage are slated for completion within 18 to 24 months.

The medical office building will be situated about 100 feet east of the hospital's emergency room entrance on a five-acre tract. The three-level garage will accommodate 650 cars. The garage will replace parking that is being eliminated for construction of the medical building. It will also provide additional parking.

Congrats to legislators

Congratulations are in order for Sen. Peter Kinder, R-Cape Girardeau, and Rep. Mark Richardson, R-Poplar Bluff.

Kinder and Richardson are among seven Missouri lawmakers who have been honored by the Associated Industries of Missouri (AIM).

Kinder, Richardson, Sen. Franc Flotron, R-St. Louis, Sen. Walt Mueller, R-Kirkwood, Rep. Jess Garnett, D-West Plains, Rep. Dave Oetting, R-Concordia, and Rep. Pat Secrest, R-St. Louis County, are recipients of the 1996 "Voice of Missouri Business Awards."

The annual awards were presented to outstanding pro-business legislators during AIM's spring board of directors meeting in Jefferson City.

Each person receiving the award has displayed tireless work before committees, taken part in lengthy floor debates and participated in important behind-the-scenes activity that is in direct benefit to business, noted AIM president Chris Long.

"We're fortunate in the Missouri House and Senate to have a number of legislators that are friends of Missouri business and industry," said Long.

AIM is a 1,400-member business and industry association.

Wondering about your refund?

You've filed your 1995 federal income tax return and you're wondering about the status of a refund.

Call 1-800-829-4477.

The Internal Revenue Service refund hotline will tell whether a refund check has been sent out and when. If there's a problem, it will tell you to call the regular IRS tax information phone number for assistance.

The IRS says you'll need to have a copy of your tax return on hand when you call.

With a touch-tone telephone, use the push buttons on the phone to enter your Social Security number, filing status and the exact amount of the expected refund. For touch-tone phone users, the IRS says the best time to call is during the evening.

If you have a conventional rotary or pulse-dial phone, an IRS operator will enter this information for you. These lines are open only during normal business hour.