Q&A with the new Missouri REALTORS CEO — A down 2023 seen rebounding in 2024

Minnesota native Breanna Vanstrom became CEO of Missouri REALTORS in May, representing 26,000 Show Me State Realtors, after seven years as CEO of Boise, Idaho, Regional Realtors. She has 19 years of experience in the industry.

Vanstrom was in Cape Girardeau on Jan. 5 to install the officers of this year's Southeast Missouri REALTORS association. She answered five real estate questions last week put to her by the Southeast Missourian.

The ranks of people going into real estate as a career or as a sideline, according to one estimate, has increased nationally by 58% in the last decade. What attracts people into the business of helping people buy and sell homes and other property?

Whenever there are some disruptions in the job market as we've seen over the past few years and especially when unemployment went up in 2020, some people saw an opportunity. Those who thought they might always want to be in real estate took the event of the COVID pandemic to try it out.

A report suggests the largest trade association in the U.S. is the National Association of Realtors (NAR). What does your statewide organization offer its membership?

We offer legal and risk management resources, including concepts for Realtors to use in transactions. We do dispute resolution services both for our members and for the public. We also have a big focus on legislation and government regulation. We advocate for our industry, for instance, on private property rights. In addition, we offer classes, conferences and networking events.

There have been various real estate forecasts offered by analysts for 2023. First Trust, for example, suggests there will be no real recovery in housing until late this year or early next year, adding home sales and prices will continue to quote, "drag," in 2023, particularly in the existing home market. What is your take on those who are offering a crystal ball outlook for the industry?

Yes, there are many sources of information. I tend to pay attention to what analysts for NAR and realtor.com are putting out there. What I'm looking at mirrors fairly closely what First Trust is saying. NAR is forecasting a real nominal 0.3% increase in prices and a 7% decline in sales nationally for 2023. Realtor.com, which looks at just the existing and resale markets, is projecting a 5.4% increase in prices and a 14% drop in sales. It should be said NAR does expect growth in price and in sales in 2024. Really what everybody looks at is inventory levels and mortgage interest rates. Those will be the determining factors of where these numbers end up ultimately.

How does Missouri's real estate picture stand out from the national figures?

Midwest housing markets normally track with the U.S. as a whole. Any variation in national numbers tends to come from coastal states or some of the large metropolitan areas. Coming recently from Idaho, we saw a lot of activity out West, particularly during the pandemic. Some may wonder if we're headed back to a crash with high mortgage rates and low inventory. Absolutely not. There were some extreme swings in activity in particular housing markets that are normalizing. When you look at Missouri, we don't see those extremes. We're generally more stable overall. We're very affordable as a state stacked up against other states. Average list price in 2022 statewide in Missouri, according to realtor.com was $365,000 compared to the average U.S. list price — not sale price — was $730,000. So, still very, very affordable here.

What should be said about the rise in mortgage rates from a market perspective?

When rates started going up, even though they are still relatively low compared to historical standards, that began to trigger a steady decline in mortgage applications. An inflection point I'd offer is when rates exceeded 5% for a 30-year fixed mortgage for the first time in more than a decade. Higher rates didn't stop buyers completely, but it put more than a few of them on hold because of uncertainty. I know a lot of our members are watching the rates.

Locally

Terry Baker,association executive, Southeast Missouri REALTORS

Terry Baker,association executive, Southeast Missouri REALTORS

Terry Baker has been association executive for Southeast Missouri REALTORS since October 2017.

CEO Vanstrom suggested Missouri doesn't see extremes in real estate prices as is the case on the East and West coasts. From a more local perspective, do you agree with her analysis?

We seem to be fairly steady. We haven't seen the kind of ginormous highs of elsewhere. Here in Southeast Missouri, this may give homeowners some hope. Some states are really struggling with housing unit (inventory), and we are, too, locally, but not nearly as much. I read something the other day about the governor of New York saying her state needed 800,000 housing units. In our area, we've really struggled, for a while now, with affordable housing.

Breanna Vanstrom, CEO, Missouri Realtorssubmitted

Breanna Vanstrom, CEO, Missouri Realtorssubmitted

Southeast Missouri REALTORS, based in Cape Girardeau, has 369 Realtors in the association plus 113 affiliate members.

Note: Business editor Jeff Long is a licensed real estate salesperson and a member of Southeast Missouri Realtors.

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Breanna Vanstromsubmitted

Breanna Vanstromsubmitted