Mixed predictions

Michael Beno isn't sure how much he's going to spend on Christmas, but it looks to be a lot.

The 28-year-old Cape Girardeau resident, recently out of the U.S. Navy, has a pretty lengthy list -- goodies for his in-laws, his mother and his children. He's buying, not to give away too many of Santa's secrets, a computer, toys for the children and something special for the wife.

"But I hope not too much," he said last week.

Bobby Gray of Sikeston, Mo., is buying a laptop and a digital camera, but he's hoping to save $1,000 or more by doing some discount shopping.

Bridgett Johnson and her 12-year-old daughter, Jasmine, both of Bell City, Mo., spent some time last week doing some Christmas shopping, too. Johnson said she expected to spend less, partially because she has fewer people to buy for this year.

But only the next month will tell how the overall holiday shopping season will shake out. The analysts and consultants who make predictions of how the critical holiday season will go, say this year is a tough one to call.

"I've seen predictions that are pretty good, but not quite as much of an increase this year as last year," said Dr. Bruce Domazlicky, director of Southeast Missouri State University's Center for Economic Research. "But I'd say it will probably be decent."

Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving that is thought to be one of the busiest shopping days of the year, was a huge day, with long lines at many Cape Girardeau stores as consumers sought to take advantage of deep discounts and freebies that stores give away.

But Domazlicky said that may not be an indicator of how well the season will be overall.

"People go out and shop anyway," he said. "So it doesn't seem to be that good of a bellwether of what the whole season is going to be like."

Some years, shoppers start off slow and then pick up steam as Christmas Day approaches. Other years, however, they start fast and then cool off.

"Consumers are hard to predict sometimes," he said.

Some factors bode well for the bottom line, though.

Consumer prices in the United States fell more than forecast in October. The consumer price index dropped 0.5 percent, matching September's retreat, the Labor Department said last week in Washington. Excluding food and energy, so-called core consumer prices rose 0.1 percent. In a separate report, the Fed said industrial production rose 0.2 percent in October.

Energy price declines will help, Domazlicky said.

"Paying $2 a gallon in gas versus $3 a gallon will help," he said. "That will contribute to a good shopping season. It also costs less to heat your home. Those kind of things help consumers a bit. Consumer debt is still pretty high, but that doesn't seem to slow shoppers."

But other factors aren't cause for optimism. The housing market remains wobbly and interest rates on consumer credit continues to climb, factors that hurt sales in recent months. In October, total chain same-store sales grew 3 percent year over year, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, below this year's average of 3.9 percent. Projections are also low for November, with ICSC projecting growth of 3 percent.

The National Retail Federation posted one of the lowest estimates for 2006, with 5 percent growth, or $457.4 billion in sales. The association said consumers have faced too many economic challenges this year to match last year's growth.

smoyers@semissourian.com

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