TAKE ACTION NOW OR FACE CALAMITY

There comes a time when a country must come face to face with stark reality. The United States has had to confront reality many times: isolationism and inadequate military preparedness before World War II, a divided nation during the Vietnam War, a searing constitutional crisis during Watergate and at other times as well.

Today's reality is less glamorous -- not war, not constitutional debate. Today's reality is money. We're running out of it. We're being eaten alive by entitlements -- the automatic federal spending program that, like Old Man River, simply keep on rolling along. They never stop. They never decrease. They grow and grow and each year consume a larger portion of the federal budget.

President Bill Clinton appointed Sens. Bob Kerrey (D-Neb.) and John Danforth (R-Mo.) to analyze the seriousness of the entitlement dilemma and to recommend corrective changes to avoid the disaster that surely lies ahead in the 21st century.

Chapter I of the Kerrey-Danforth report, discussing the scope of the crisis, is in. Chapter II -- what can be done -- will be released by the end of the year.

"Crisis" is not too strong a word, although the story is hard to dramatize with television pictures and the report was not front page news last week. But nothing that has happened recently is likely to have the long term impact on the lives of most Americans that the entitlement issue will have.

Here's an abstract of some of the conclusions.

-- By 2003, unless entitlements are reduced, most of the federal programs pertaining to young people -- education, job training, Head Start, etc. -- will have to be drastically cut back or eliminated. (Author's note: We know the United States is spending in favor of the elderly to the disadvantage of the young. European nations, in contrast, put a much larger percentage of their funds in youth-related programs.)

-- By 2013, unless entitlements are reduced, entitlements and debt interest will consume all of the collected federal taxes.

-- By 2030, unless entitlements are reduced, we won't even be able to pay for all of the current entitlement programs. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and pensions for federal retirees will consume all of the federal taxes collected.

-- Health care costs have been increasing by 10 percent a year for the past five years. Without cost constraints, Medicare and Medicaid will continue to put severe strains on the federal budget.

-- America's population is aging. In 1950, eight workers supported one retiree's federal benefits. Today, five current employees must contribute the payroll taxes necessary to cover the costs of one retiree. In 2030, the number will be three. As the population lives longer, health care and retirement costs will soar. (Author's note: Also by 2030, the United States will have, on a per capita basis, twice as many super aged -- 90s and 100s -- as any other nation on earth. Most of these will be breathing, but not thinking.)

-- Once the baby boomers begin to retire in 2010, the cash flow surplus from Social Security will rapidly decline. Taxes on employees and employers will have to be raised substantially or benefits will have to be cut.

-- The Social Security Trust Fund will be totally out of money by 2029.

One can quibble about whether calamity is precisely in 2029 or 2039 or whatever date. But one cannot quibble about the inevitability of the entitlement crisis. The trends are stark reality.

Kerrey-Danforth Chapter II will propose a way out -- not the only way, but one way to cope with the future and face up to stark reality.

Frankly, there is not the political will in Congress to do what has to be done. Congress is an easy mark for intimidation. Special interest groups can devour good judgment. When you think of what the insurance people, the gun people, the small business people can do to intimidate legislators, think what will happen when the House and Senate have to cope with long-entrenched entitlements. Hell hath no fury like senior citizens on a rampage. The farm lobby won't give up their price supports. Military and civil service pensioners won't surrender a dime.

Status quo is always the favorite over change. Anticipatory prudence runs counter to political immediacy. Only with calamity at hand can we energize the governmental machine and overcome the inertia that makes over-expanding entitlements seem a permanent feature of the political landscape.

Thomas F. Eagleton is a former U.S. senator from Missouri and a columnist for Pulitzer Publishing Co.