STATE ELECTIONS MAY BE BAROMETER OF GOP DIRECTIONS

Odd-numbered years such as 1995 aren't usually viewed as election years, at least not in states such as Missouri where general elections are confined to even-numbered years. At least five states, however, will hold statewide general elections that will have major national implications. They are Virginia, New Jersey, Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana.

Elections in the first two of these states involve control of the state legislatures, while in the latter three legislative races are overshadowed by gubernatorial contests. In New Jersey, Republicans took huge, veto-proof majorities in both the House and Senate four years ago after a Democratic governor (since dumped by the voters) raised taxes by a gigantic $1 billion. The GOP will be defending these majorities in the Garden State. In the Old Dominion, where Republicans are just a handful of seats short of control in both the House and Senate, the outcome will determine whether the GOP will control the legislature for the first time ever. Interestingly, GOPers in Virginia are appealing to the voters through a Contract With Virginia modeled on the one rolled out last fall by House Speaker Newt Gingrich at the federal level. Such new contracts, and the governing accountability they help to enforce, may just be the wave of the future and a lasting Gingrich legacy.

In Mississippi, the first Republican governor since Reconstruction, Gov. Kirk Fordyce, is thought by most observers to be a prohibitive re-election favorite.

In the Byzantine contest that is a race for governor of Louisiana, a free-for-all primary (11 candidates) has yielded two sharply contrasting nominees: conservative state senator Mike Foster, who switched to the Republican Party only this year, and liberal Democratic U.S. Rep. Cleo Fields, the first black nominated for the top spot since Reconstruction. Rep. Fields won his No. 2 position in primary balloting and a spot in the runoff with only 19 percent of the vote, 98 percent of it from black precincts. If Sen. Foster wins, he will become only the second GOP governor since Reconstruction. The Nov. 18 runoff election certainly offers a sharp contrast to voters in the land that has been called America's only Mediterranean state.

Our neighbors to the east in Kentucky have a spirited contest under way in a state that hasn't elected a Republican governor since 1967. Democratic Lt. Gov. Paul Patton has squared off against long-time GOP activist Larry Forgy in a high-profile race with national implications. Forgy has raised the stakes by sharply attacking the Kentucky Education Reform Act of 1990, which served as the model for Senate Bill 380, which enacted Missouri's education reforms three years later. It is most interesting that in reply, Democrat Patton doesn't defend the sweeping, outcome-based education-style reforms, but rather says he will "fix KERA." Politicians nationwide, but especially in Missouri, are watching this one to see how the Forgy appeal to back-to-fundamentals education plays with the voters.

Were the GOP to win all three gubernatorial races, they would control 32 of the nation's governorships, an all-time high for Republicans.

All these races take place against the backdrop of the high-profile, high-stakes budgetary and other battles playing out in Washington, D.C., this week. The GOP congressional majority is attempting to make good on the promises they made 13 months ago in their original Contract With America and can be said to be largely delivering. This is a shift of emphasis of truly historic proportions to begin the tough work of pruning more than three decades of we-can-have-it-all social welfare and entitlement spending.

As these budgetary battles continue in Washington, Democrats at all levels are exhausting every vivid metaphor they can dream up about widows and orphans and old folks thrown out in the snow as soon as the debt turns 31 days old. With such rhetoric flying hot and heavy, a major test of Republican courage, resolve and perseverance is unfolding. The outcome of these five state elections will tell much about whether voters want a continuation of the GOP direction they endorsed so overwhelmingly last Nov. 8.