MISSOURI WATCH: STANDING PATT (BUCHANAN) IN MISSOURI

Presidential candidate Pat Buchanan recently told a writer for a state political newsletter that if he were the party's nominee this fall, he would carry sometime-bellwether Missouri against Bill Clinton. The former St. Louis editorial writer, speaking before he won in the bellwether state of New Hampshire, was quoted as saying: "I know Missouri and I can win the state in November, even if I'm shut out of the caucuses."

Even before the victory in New Hampshire lifted him from also-ran to a front-runner status, Buchanan evidenced the kind of self-confidence that seems to be part and parcel of candidates who are convinced they are striking a chord with crowds that turn out to view the strange celebrities who monopolize America's news every quadrennium. Buchanan sometimes displays an uncanny resemblance to past electoral hobgoblins such as Ross Perot, George Wallace and Teddy Roosevelt.

Even before he reached double-digit figures in the polls, Buchanan was convinced that, despite the millions of votes he would attract before the Missouri caucuses, he was not highly regarded among Missouri's Republican elite, and he was right once again. Bob Dole's campaign manager in the state is none other than our senior U.S. senator, Kit Bond, while Buchanan's hierarchy consists principally of people he met and knew while living in St. Louis. Most of these people are political conservatives, devout Roman Catholics, staunch foes of abortion and strong enemies of liberal ideology that to them obsesses on giving up the rights of the majority to surrender them to the minority. Many of Buchanan's friends in Missouri would vote for the Devil before they cast their votes for a liberal candidate, believing that Satan, despite his faults, wasn't soft on blacks, gays, pro-choicers, pinkos and corrupt Washington insiders.

Only those who haven't been listening, or watching, are now surprised that Buchanan has steadily advanced in the polls and is inching toward the status of THE candidate for the GOP nomination. Displaying their usual short-sightedness, the Clinton people reportedly believe their toughest candidate is Lamar Alexander and that Buchanan will eventually self-destruct. That seems to some to be more wishful thinking than an accurate portrayal of reality, for Alexander is still a Washington insider, even if he was also a governor, and his consistent defense of what Buchanan calls "misguided policies of the past" still mark him as a compromise candidate, the least favored among the most disliked. Where's Lamar's beef?

In times more normal, if there ever was such a period, Bob Dole would be the overwhelming favorite, even if Robert Taft seemed the likely nominee when a general named Dwight Eisenhower appeared in the wings. Dole is no more doleful than Nixon, no more an insider than George Bush, no less faithful to Republican conservatism than Ronald Reagan. The problem is that the Kansan has been around so long that he is associated with those earlier-noted misguided policies of the past even when he had nothing to do with them and actually opposed many of them. He is too familiar, just as is his message: I deserve your vote because I have earned it. Funny, but most voters feel little or no obligation to that blandishment.

I have the feeling Buchanan is closer to the truth than many are willing to admit with his claim of carrying Missouri if matched against Bill Clinton. Part of that appeal has less to do with the image of a former newspaper editorialist than with the absence of Clinton's appeal after nearly four years of sometime-sophomoric performances. The disenchanted haven't had enough time to grow either weary or wary of Pat, with plenty of time to tire of the Bill and Hillary sideshow.

It doesn't take a Ph.D. in political science to detect in the Buchanan message an echo of views expressed daily by millions of disheartened, angry, electoral dropouts who claim to love America but hate its government. Voters' principal complaints about our constitutional republic are not difficult to list: lack of responsiveness to the majority, over-concentration on minority privileges, moral turpitude, big-business favoritism, paucity of values, indifference to loyal and hard-working tax-paying citizens, political cronyism, selfish aggrandizement, too many foreign-made products.

Listen closely to what Buchanan is promising: an end to all of these. If abortions are stopped, America will again become a moral nation; if minority privileges are halted, America will recognize those who have "earned" their rights; if America stops granting everything Big Business asks, then the middle class will again enjoy the rewards of hard work and frugal savings; if an outsider governs Washington, then all the selfish insiders will be out of office; if America wants greater prosperity then its rights must supersede the rights of foreign countries; if America wants law-and-order and a return to happier days then all of the foreigners who are keeping us from having these benefits should be barred and their entry to the 1 and of milk and honey slowed to a small trickle. Additionally, if America has problems in the future, then all that's required is utilization of good old American common sense which will resolve all dilemmas in an instant.

You see, Buchanan explains, our problems really aren't that complicated. You just have to exercise those truly native American talents of good judgment, patriotism, love of God and belief in the goodness of the American public.

As noted, Pat's message is not that brilliantly original. What's unique is this moment: a time when the Republican who would normally win the nomination is tired and a bit over-exposed, the incumbent president is viewed with a jaundiced eye, the average American is earning less inflation adjusted dollars today than 15 years ago, corporate America is downsizing rather than upsizing, and Washington's morals are almost universally viewed as gutter-level .

Buchanan is saying what many average Americans are saying. Is it any wonder voters are listening to a message they themselves seem to have written?

~Jack Stapleton of Kennett is the editor of the Missouri News and Editorial Service.