MISSOURI COMMENTARY: WHEN YOUR ENEMY IS YOUR BEST FRIEND: A RECAP OF THE ELECTIONS

The Republicans did the impossible. They lost an off-year election to the party of the discredited president. Not since 1822 has the party of a president in the sixth year of his tenure picked up votes in an off-year election. James Monroe's party did it in 1822. And Bill Clinton's party, enormously aided by Republican strategy, did it 176 years later. Speaker Newt Gingrich, Majority Leader Dick Armey and Tom DeLay should all take a bow.

First, let's talk about the various winners -- persons and philosophies -- of the 1998 election.

The Bush Brothers, George Pataki and Gray Davis: Four decent, plausible men with plausible approaches to governance. These are not the men of wedge issues and divisive politics. These are not the pious merchants of fear. These are rational men. Thank God rationality still has a place in American politics.

George W. Bush, the Texas brother, is now a liberated politician. He does not have to cringe when Rush Limbaugh or Jerry Falwell or James Dobson go on one of their purges. His appeal is broad-based: white, black, Hispanic, male, female, young and old. He doesn't need fear as his abiding mission in life.

George W. is the odds-on favorite for the Republican presidential nomination in 2000. With his massive win in Texas, he cannot now be forced by the hard right to take a junior version of Dan Quayle as a running mate. He can actually pick someone who is worthy of being president if called upon. He can pick someone fit for the 21st century, not one of those practitioners of pretense wallowing in the 19th century.

George W's biggest problem is California. The Republicans clobbered in the Golden State. Dan Lungren, the right-wing candidate for governor once thought by sophisticated oracles like me to be a possible next president of the United States, went down in flames. Retiring Gov. Pete Wilson, the practiced purveyor of wedge issues, so divided the electorate of California that Lungren, his anointed successor, imploded as he tried to peddle warmed-over Wilsonism.

To win in California in 2000, George W. has to run, as he ran in Texas, as a politician who brings people together, and not run as an architect of intolerance. Bush is sufficiently astute to not allow the right-win zealots to push him over to the fringe as they did to poor Bob Dole in 1996. He knows that whoever wins California in 2000 is the next president of the United States. Bush of Texas can read political history.

Gov. George Pataki of New York was also liberated. He is no longer the clone of Alphonse D'Amato. He is Pataki the Powerful in his own right.

Solid, stolid Gray Davis demonstrated that moderation will be the key to success in California, a bellwether state where many political trends of the past 50 years have started. Davis keeps the Democrats vibrantly alive in California in 2000 and for reapportionment the following year.

Hillary and Bill: Mrs. Clinton is truly in mystical communication with Eleanor Roosevelt. Hillary carried the message -- Social Security, health care, education and the economy -- with style and vigor. Her husband stayed in the shadows hustling money. She did politically what she does best. He did politically what he does best. Bill is assured of keeping his job. It's now up to Representative Henry Hyde and wise men like Howard Baker and Bob Dole to devise a viable exit strategy from the impeachment process.

Russell Feingold: the campaign-spending reform senator from Wisconsin declines to take the tainted political money and triumphs. A match light remains flickering for the cause of campaign spending reform.

Moderation: As Davis illustrated in California, moderation is the clear philosophical winner in 1998. Even in Minnesota, where the voters opted for some fun, the politics of moderation prevailed. Sen. Orin Hatch (R-Utah) said, "The Republican Party has to get off the dime and stop ignoring women, minorities (they did in California, they didn't in Texas) and Hispanics."

In Missouri, Sen. Kit Bond once upon a time was a flaming moderate in his first term as governor (1973-77). He lost his governorship and then reinvented himself as a conservative. In 1998 he went through another reinvention as a less flaming equal-opportunity moderate. He supported a black, pro-choice Democrat for federal judge. He spoke in favor of affirmative action. And he vigorously espoused inner-city housing for the poor. He won.

Now, let's move on to the losers.

Gingrich, Armey and DeLay: They are the polar opposites of Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance. Given a political opportunity, Gingrich, Armey and DeLay will fumble the ball.

Both Gingrich and Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott admitted that the Republican Party did not listen to what the American people were saying. Lott added, "We need to have a clear understanding and a concise message that we do apply across the country."

The Christian Right: bloodied, but poised to fight yet another election to divide America. Led by James Dobson, the religious broadcaster, the Christian soldiers march ever onward to amend the Constitution so as to pander to every fear. The soldiers preach freedom and independence, but demand conformity in all aspects of life and thought.

"Mr. Morality" Bill Bennett kept demanding "outrage," and what little he found was directed at him. The president candidates frozen on the right -- Dan Quayle, Gary Bauer, Steve Forbes and John Ashcroft -- are left imprisoned in the tundra. They are no longer serious alternatives for the presidency, and John Ashcroft fell off the radar screen for the vice presidency. Bush cannot carry California with Ashcroft around his neck. But he can the GOP carry a moderate message to victory in the wider electorate without alienating its zealous Christian Right base?

Tim Russert and Sam Donaldson: The Sunday talk-show gurus spent all of 1998 talking about Bill and Monica when the people wanted to hear about things that affects real lives. A CNN poll asked: What issues interest you? Bill and Monica 6 percent, morals 23 percent, other 71 percent. Russert and Donaldson ignored the 71 percent and gave endless play to the 29 percent.

Even Gingrich challenged the judgment of the Sunday bloodhounds. He said, "Compare the time you people spent on Monica with the time you spent on Social Security, the budget, defense, cutting taxes or education. You only had time for Monica. The news media was obsessed with Monica." Bear in mind that Gingrich said this the day after -- well after he had authorized spending $10 million in Bill-Clinton-lies advertisements.

Mitch McConnel: The leading Senate advocate of money-drenched elections. He threw in a ton of money to defeat Feingold in Wisconsin. In Washington, he withheld money from a female Republican candidate that he personally disliked, thus, giving the Washington Senate seats to the Democrats.

Finally, let's look in the open space between winners and losers.

Al Gore: The earnest, cigar-store Indian worked assiduously, espoused moderation, and, to the extent that Clinton is in better shape today, Gore is also in better shape. Gore has access to incalculable amounts of political money. He is Clinton's designated heir, which may later prove to be a mixed blessing. Gore is the obvious favorite for the Democratic nomination. All of this constitutes Gore the winner.

Gore the loser badly trails George W. in every poll. Attorney General Janet Reno still has her hand on the guillotine waiting to decide if a second-coming of Ken Starr is to investigate Gore's 1996 fund-raising activities.

Only two other Democrats are in the realistic picture for the 2000 presidential nomination: Minority Leader Dick Gephardt and former Sen. Bill Bradley. Why just these two? They are the only Democrats who can come close to raising $25 million by Jan. 1, 2000. With the huge, money-sucking primaries in California and New York moving up in 2000 to March, a candidate for president has to have $25 million in the bank before the race starts. A presidential campaign can no longer raise-and-spend week by week. You cannot win in cheap Iowa and cheap New Hampshire and then raise the big bucks. You have to raise the big bucks first. And $25 million is only the up-front money. Additional millions will be needed on the way to the convention.

The Supreme Court has ruled that money talks in American politics. Money talked a lot in 1998 when $1 billion was spent. It will talk even louder in 2000 when spending escalates to $2 billion.

~Tom Eagleton of St. Louis is a former U.S. senator from Missouri.