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OpinionDecember 6, 1996

As with many prognostications, the Federal Reserve Bank in Kansas City is offering an educated warning that Missouri's jobless rate may increase in the not-too-distant future. The forecast is based, in part, on the downsizing at many industrial plants. This continuing trend is combined with a lack of growth in newly created manufacturing jobs...

As with many prognostications, the Federal Reserve Bank in Kansas City is offering an educated warning that Missouri's jobless rate may increase in the not-too-distant future. The forecast is based, in part, on the downsizing at many industrial plants. This continuing trend is combined with a lack of growth in newly created manufacturing jobs.

While the Fed is careful to say there is no need for immediate alarm, there is a timely message in the carefully worded outlook. Missouri has enjoyed a net gain in available jobs in recent years in spite of plant closings and other factors that tend to whittle away at the job market. Many of the new jobs, however, have been in service industries, which mans there are more workers, but their earning potential is lower.

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The Fed's report should be of particular interest to local chambers of commerce and industrial development groups. The never-ending effort to lure companies to locate in a particular community becomes even more critical in light of the expected trend.

But the Fed makes another point in its latest report: The competition to bring new jobs into the state may be less important than efforts to retain existing companies -- and their jobs. In recent years, the incentives to attract manufacturers and other employers who locate in Missouri have grown as competition between states became stiffer and stiffer.

The good news is that keeping existing employers happy has long been a high priority for local chambers and industrial groups. The old saying about "a bird in the hand" is certainly true in this case. Overall, the Cape Girardeau area has enjoyed a net increase in jobs, thanks largely to several new retailers and the new Blue Cross service center that will open soon. But part of that increase also can be attributed to ongoing efforts to keep key jobs in the area.

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