CONGRESS AND THE 2000 ELECTION

In 22 months, we will hold the election of 2000. That simple fact of the political calendar will color every decision taken in Congress and the White House over that period.

This is true for several reasons, not least that to some extent this is always the case in a constitutional republic. Other factors, however, combine to make it even more true this time. First is the nearly evenly divided strength of the parties in Congress. A shift of only six seats will return to Democrats control of the House of Representatives they lost in 1994. In the Senate, the party breakdown is 55 Republicans to 45 Democrats, but the majority has 19 seats to defend against only 14 for Democrats. Moreover, this class of Republican senators were elected, some narrowly, in the GOP landslide of 1994 and face their first electoral test since then.

Moreover, the 2000 election stands out for other reasons. Whichever party wins the White House will likely prevail in the closely divided House and possibly the Senate as well. In addition, several Supreme Court seats are likely to become vacant as well. Chief Justice William Rehnquist, a 1972 Nixon appointee, is aging, as is Justice John Paul Stevens, a 1975 Ford appointee. Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, a cancer survivor, could choose to step down.

The convergence of all these facts means that the 2000 election could be the first in many years in which literally all three branches of government are up for grabs. That will inevitably affect the congressional agenda and make an interesting election campaign even more so.