CAMPAIGN FORECAST

With a Midwestern sweep this week in four large state primaries, Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole has effectively clinched the Republican presidential nomination he has sought three times since 1980. With President Bill Clinton the first sitting Democratic president to avoid a primary battle for re-nomination since FDR, the field for this fall's general election is set. Or is it.

Was it an accident that Ross Perot, the Energizer Bunny of American politics and founder of what he calls a Reform Party, chose this week to resume revealing a little ankle to the voters? Probably not. The quirky and mercurial Perot seems to chafe any time too many days pass without an appearance on "Larry King Live," and in due course the invitation arrives. Perot's statement that he will run "if the Reform Party nominates me" throws just the sort of monkey wrench into the presidential race in which he seems to delight.

What isn't clear is whether Perot can command anywhere near the 19 percent slice of the vote he earned in 1992, the highest for a third-party effort since the Bull-Moosers nominated Teddy Roosevelt in 1912. With nationwide poll numbers and unfavorable ratings worse than either First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton or House Speaker Newt Gingrich, the American people seem to have arrived at judgments on the cranky billionaire that cast his vote-getting appeal in considerable doubt. Moreover, it isn't clear that the new party will succeed in getting on most state ballots. Perot is financing efforts now that are meeting with varying degrees of state-by-state success.

It long ago became a commonplace observation that President Clinton is one of the most formidable campaigners ever at the presidential level. Sen. Dole has a huge job ahead of him, one that Perot threatens to greatly complicate. The next major move is Dole's: selecting a vice presidential nominee. In that calculation, it seems time to accept the repeated demurrals of Gen. Colin Powell at face value. On the good side, the GOP has an embarrassment of riches: 31 of 50 states have GOP governors, including many who have cut taxes, reformed welfare, managed efficiently and performed with distinction. Should be an interesting year.