By James Baughn, Armchair Weather Guesser
The computer models, which have a nasty habit of flip-flopping from day to day, haven't flipped or flopped much today. This is truly an unusual situation! The models still show the coming system, Winter Storm "Bumblebee Man", delivering a quality snowfall across Southeast Missouri, with the heaviest snow likely to fall in the Bootheel.
Cape Girardeau is at the northern edge of a region expected to see 4 inches or more. If the storm shifts to south, we may not see anything. If it shifts to the north, we could see 6, 8, or even 12 inches.
This map shows the latest National Weather Service
guess probability for a 4+ inch snowfall:
We are squarely within the green zone with a 40% chance or better, while areas along the Missouri-Arkansas border have a 70% chance.
The odds of a bigger 8 inch snowfall aren't as great, but are definitely greater than zero. Cape has at least a 10% chance of a big snow:
The NWS Paducah office has issued a Winter Storm Watch. Their bulletin says:
* SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* 4 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ALONG A LINE FROM MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO GREENVILLE KENTUCKY. CLOSER TO THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE STATE LINES WITH KENTUCKY AND MISSOURI...AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 6 INCHES. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO HOPKINSVLLLE KENTUCKY.
The imaginary line from Marble Hill to Greenville, Kentucky, just barely includes Cape Girardeau. Here's what this looks like on a map using the latest in non-patent-pending Wild Guessing Random Doodle Technology(tm):
With the system just now reaching the California coast, we should have a better feel tomorrow for the strength and track of the storm as it starts to cross land. Hopefully the computer models won't flip-flop too much by morning. (Unless you hate snow, in which case now would be a good time to hope for a really massive flop.)