Here comes the first snow of the season

Our first winter storm of the season is almost here. The NWS in Paducah has issued a Winter Weather Advisory covering the region from noon to 9 PM today. The advisory states that "total snow accumulations one to two inches likely" with "winds guesting as high as 30 to 35 mph."

Current projections from the NWS Weather Prediction Center (based on a blend of computer model runs) show a 50% chance that Cape Girardeau will receive at least one inch of snow accumulation.

...and a more than 10% chance of seeing at least two inches.

Some of the short-term computer models have been trending even higher this morning. The 12Z run of the RAP model, for example, paints a band of heavy show right on top of Cape Girardeau County with totals approaching 7 inches. This seems rather ridiculous, but there is an outside chance that this storm could surprise everyone and overdeliver.

Keep in mind that we did have a high temperature of 65 yesterday at Cape Girardeau, so the ground is warm, making it hard to get the snow to stick at first. This may be a situation where we see heavy snow falling, but not much to show for it on the ground.