STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS ADVANCES THE STATE OF PRESIDENT BUSH

The state of the union may not be dramatically improved by President Bush's speech, but the state of Bush's political condition will be. After looking pathetic in Japan and after flailing around frenetically in New Hampshire, Bush needed to look presidential to look as if he were in charge. He definitely accomplished that. His style and demeanor were confident. His text had the gift of the Peggy Noonan touch. His delivery and timing were in synch.

Image is important in presidential politics and leadership. In the television era, perception and reality are as one. You can't be presidential if you don't act and look presidential. The people can't believe what you say if you appear awkward and thus incredible. So score a gain for the president on ambience enough, at least, to give him a boost in New Hampshire.

On substance, there is less to brag about. With a 1992 deficit of $399 billion (projected 1993 deficit: $352 billion), there are significant limits on what a president or, for that matter, a Congress can do to "jump start" the economy. You can give it a nudge. You can give it a slight tap. But if "jump start" means an instant, massive outpouring if federal cash now this very month of February, 1992 there is no way to do it.

Even as a "nudge," the president's program was so gentle as to be barely felt. The investment tax credit good idea. Making the research and development tax credit permanent good idea. Revising withholding tax tables so that you can get a few bucks this year, but pay more next year nice in '92, not so nice in '93. The capital gains reduction remains the president's pet idea. Bush now proclaims this is a middle class tax cut, but it surely isn't and Bush surely knows it. In the defense area, the president eliminates the already doomed Stealth bomber, but leaves 208,000 troops in Europe to fight Serbia.

Perhaps the most interesting lines in the speech were the dullest, which the president read in a most subdued way.

"We must bring (health care) costs under control, preserve quality, preserve choice and reduce the people's nagging daily worry about health insurance. My plan, the details of which I will announce shortly, does just that." (Emphasis supplied.) George Bush has been president for three years. He has known that health care is a priority concern for the American people. But even now he and his advisers are still groping around trying to find his "plan."

The truth is that the president's advisers are at each other's throats over the issue. They know they need something on "health care." It must have all of the noble goals set forth by the president, and, most importantly to him, it must not cost the government, business or consumers a dime. It's health care by mirage. You see it in print, but you don't get it at the hospital or the doctor's office.

Health care will be a major issue in the fall campaign. The Republicans will be stuck with a tissue paper plan they can't defend; the Democrats may well be stuck with a more substantive plan they probably can't pay for. There's no way to do health care on the cheap.