Positive economic outlook for Cape area

Cape Girardeau County's economy is nothing short of fascinating. At a time when the national picture is filled with gloom, merchants here are predicting a solid Christmas shopping season.

There's reason for the optimism.

Yes, the September sales-tax check for the county -- based on purchases made last July -- was down slightly from the year before, but local economists said July isn't a good month on which to base trends.

The October check, sent from the state's Department of Revenue after all sales tax is collected, includes August back-to-school sales. It was up 5 percent from a year ago for Cape Girardeau County and 10 percent for the city of Cape Girardeau.

Southeast Missouri State University economists attributed the good numbers to the university's growing enrollment and those students' return to classes.

Thanks largely to the October checks, city and county governments are on track to receive higher revenue this year than last year.

The city of Cape Girardeau received $6.45 million in sales tax revenue for the first 10 months of this year, up more than $60,000, and the county received $4.48 million, up more than $4,000 over the same period a year ago.

Optimistic merchants already are putting up their Christmas displays with the holiday 65 shopping days away and Halloween and Thanksgiving lying between now and then.

And while the economists say the National Retail Association's prediction of a 4 percent increase over last Christmas' sales is far too high, local merchants say that's on track with what they expect.

That's even though they know about the uncertainty with Iraq. They also know that much of the disposable income generated when consumers refinanced their loans earlier this year already is spent.

The manager of Cape Girardeau's Target store says 4 percent sounds right for Cape Girardeau. Hopeful downtown jeweler Chuck McGinty agreed and said, "Either we're crazy or just very optimistic." Famous Barr's manager anticipates a modest gain.

Maybe the merchants' positive attitude rubs off on their customers. But for some reason, when the rest of the nation mourns the falling stock market and the weak consumer confidence, the shoppers in this little corner of the world decide to have the same back-to-school and Christmas seasons they always have.

And that makes Cape Girardeau County a good place to start a business.