Political reality often defies best predictions

Some people think they can predict what will happen in elections. But consider the following:

In 1992, everyone thought incumbent President Bush was unbeatable in view of the U.S. victory in Kuwait and his 70 percent-plus poll ratings of approval.

So the more familiar and experienced candidates such as U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of St. Louis took a pass on running for president.

A basically unknown to the general populace, the Democratic governor from Arkansas, ran for president, and Bill Clinton won with a less than 50 percent vote as third-party candidate Ross Perot pulled votes primarily from Bush.

Back in 1976 -- on the night of the primary election -- the Democratic nominee for U.S. senator, Jerry Litton of Chillicothe, Mo., was killed in a plane crash while flying to Kansas City to celebrate. Thus circumstances played a role in the election of one of Missouri's most influential Republican officials, Jack Danforth of St. Louis, who served as Missouri's senator until he chose to retire. Danforth was one of the keys to the revitalization of Missouri's Republican Party in what had been an overwhelmingly Democrat-dominated state government by his appointments of Kit Bond and John Ashcroft to positions while he was the state's attorney general.

And many believe Danforth's support of another of his former associates in the Missouri attorney general's office was the deciding factor in the confirmation of Clarence Thomas for the U.S. Supreme Court.

Gov. Mel Carnahan's untimely death in the final days of his 2000 campaign for U.S. Senate against incumbent (and former Missouri governor) John Ashcroft set in motion the unusual events that led to the election of the deceased Carnahan and the appointment of his wife, Jean Carnahan, to fill the interim seat until the next election two years later when she was narrowly defeated by former U.S. Rep. Jim Talent.

Talent had been narrowly defeated for governor two years earlier by Democrat Bob Holden, who now faces a possible primary in his own party against State Auditor Claire McCaskill.

Jean Carnahan was appointed to the U.S. Senate vacancy by Gov. Roger Wilson, who as lieutenant governor became governor upon the death of Mel Carnahan. Wilson had been expected to run for governor until the Democratic powers jumped early onto the Holden bandwagon and dried up much of the money. Family matters also caused Wilson to withdraw from the race.

The narrowly defeated Ashcroft was thus available to be appointed as U.S. attorney general by the second President Bush at a historic time in our nation.

Now this week we have Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell, who was slated to run for re-election, announcing he would not be a candidate because the illness of his wife properly takes priority.

Little-known Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont is leading the Democratic presidential slate. Actor and body builder Arnold Schwarzenegger has become a leading candidate for governor of California.

So ... how predictable is politics?

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George Carlin on life: Isn't it amazing that George Carlin, the gross and mouthy comedian of the 1970s and 1980s, could write something so very eloquent and so very appropriate post-9-11? Read on:

The paradox of our time in history is that we have taller buildings but shorter tempers, wider freeways but narrower viewpoints. We spend more but have less. We buy more but enjoy less. We have bigger houses and smaller families, more conveniences, but less time. We have more degrees but less sense, more knowledge but less judgment, more experts yet more problems, more medicine but less wellness.

We drink too much, smoke too much, spend too recklessly, laugh too little, drive too fast, get too angry, stay up too late, get up too tired, read too little, watch TV too much and pray too seldom. We have multiplied our possessions but reduced our values. We talk too much, love too seldom and hate too often.

We've learned how to make a living but not a life. We've added years to life, not life to years. We've been all the way to the moon and back but have trouble crossing the street to meet a new neighbor. We conquered outer space but not inner space. We've done larger things but not better things.

We've cleaned up the air but polluted the soul. We've conquered the atom but not our prejudice. We write more but learn less. We plan more but accomplish less. We've learned to rush but not to wait. We build more computers to hold more information, produce more copies than ever but communicate less and less.

These are the times of fast foods and slow digestion, big men and small character, steep profits and shallow relationships. These are the days of two incomes but more divorce, fancier houses but broken homes. These are days of quick trips, disposable diapers, throwaway morality, one-night stands, overweight bodies and pills that do everything from cheer to quiet to kill. It is a time when there is much in the showroom window and nothing in the stockroom. A time when technology can bring this letter to you, and a time when you can choose either to share this insight or to just hit delete.

Remember, spend some time with your loved ones, because they are not going to be around forever. Remember to say a kind word to someone who looks up to you in awe, because that little person soon will grow up and leave your side. Remember to give a warm hug to the one next to you, because that is the only treasure you can give with your heart and it doesn't cost a cent.

Remember to say "I love you" to your partner and your loved ones, but most of all mean it. A kiss and an embrace will mend hurt when it comes from deep inside of you. Remember to hold hands and cherish the moment for someday that person will not be there again. Give time to love, give time to speak, and give time to share the precious thoughts in your mind.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the moments that take our breath away.

Gary Rust is chairman of Rust Communications.