NEVER DRAW TO INSIDE STRAIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN MIDDLE EAST

Secretary of State James Baker has completed his fourth round of shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East. Baker's efforts yielded the affection of President Bush and the gratitude of the American people for making a valiant effort but little else.

Baker's attempt had to be made. It was perhaps America's last clear chance to induce a peace conference which could lead to the ultimate overall settlement. Such a settlement is desired by the entire world, except the nations of the Middle East.

In the Gulf War, George Bush had done well for everybody. For Kuwait, he was the liberator. For Saudi Arabia, he was the defender. For Egypt and Syria, he was the unifier. For Israel, he was the protector. Nothing could momentarily coalesce the Middle East like the grim shadow of Saddam Hussein. Saddam was perhaps the most friendless tyrant in history. Even Hitler had Mussolini. For Saddam, it was charity from none and malice from all.

Hating Saddam, however, does not forge the putative brotherhood required for a Middle East peace. It's one thing to set aside temporarily deep-seated anxieties and wounds for the excising of an imminent common danger. It's another thing to erase those anxieties and grievances after the danger has been contained.

The truth is that in the Arab-Israeli conflict there is far greater support for the status quo; you may not be able to live with peace.

For the Saudi royal family, the guardians of Mecca, it is more desirable to have Israel as a regional tumor than as a recognized neighbor. For Assad of Syria there is greater stability in no peace conference and no Golan Heights.

For the Israelis, there is greater comfort in talking about the distant possibility of giving up land for peace than there is in actually giving up land for peace especially as Ariel Sharon keeps putting new settlements in the West Bank every time Secretary Baker lands at the Tel Aviv Airport. For the Palestinians Saddam's best friends there is little external sympathy and little internal unity of ultimate purpose.

In the Middle East, the Gulf war displayed our military puissance, but did not give us political command authority. We are the policeman of the area, but we are not the political arbiter.

Like every other Secretary of State since 1948, Baker has discovered that he can nibble at the edges of the Arab-Israeli crisis, but never can come close to the core. He was graciously and smilingly welcomed by kings, presidents and prime ministers. They all know that they can outwait him. In the Middle East, patience can always win over peace, because it has less short-term risk. It's pretty hard to point the finger of blame for breaking up peace talks that never took place. Finger pointing gets much riskier when, at a peace conference, everyone at the felt-covered conference table points to one country and says, "The rest of us are in basic agreement; it's your move."

In Middle Eastern politics, you don't stay in power if you draw to an inside straight.