MISSOURI WATCH: THE POSSIBLE IS IMPROBABLE

It is possible to read the latest figures from the Missouri Department of Revenue and become downright euphoric about the economy, both in our state and across the country. At the end of the calendar year, Missouri's general revenue tax collections were 13.9 percent ahead of the same period a year before, and both sales-use and personal income tax collections were up more than 10 percent. Corporate income tax funds had increased 65.9 percent, while all other categories had increased 28 percent.

These figures obviously mean something, and they would seem to point to a period of protracted prosperity in the Show Me state and elsewhere. The only fly in the ointment was a relatively small tax, levied on beer sales in Missouri, and these collections have been on a downward slide for several months. Economists would no doubt sneer at any contention that what the amount of beer consumed in a state is any reflection of its economic health, yet believe it or not, in recent years this particular levy has been a better barometer of what was ahead than either sales-use taxes or corporate earnings levies. The reason is fairly obvious: hard times hit the working man faster and with more impact than are experienced by large or even small corporations or the wealthy. Thus the conclusion that beer sales more nearly reflect the optimism, or pessimism, of the most vulnerable to economic downturns: the working stiff who treats himself to a glass or two of his favorite beverage.

An economist at the University of Missouri, who wants to remain anonymous because he is in the minority among his peers, believes that economic optimism is hard to come by. As he told me recently, "It is impossible to predict a solid, stable and prosperous year and be honest too." He sees even more difficulty for agriculture within the state which remains, despite a smaller number of farmers, a vital part of Missouri's economy. In fact, my economist friend believes agriculture may be in for a double whammy: farming will not only be buffeted by oversupply and low livestock prices, it will also be jockeyed and jostled by the budgetary machinations of the two political parties.

It is much easier, and more natural, for most of us to search the sky for that promised piece of pie, occurring in the form of big reductions in taxes without a cutback in government services. To return to realism for a moment, let's all repeat together: "I can't have a major tax reduction and still get the same services I have come to expect from my political benefactors in Washington and Jefferson City." You may not feel any better upon reciting this mantra, but you will at least have returned from the Land of Oz, back to good old solid Earth.

What started as Newt Gingrich's "Contract With America" and has evolved into a full-scaled bipartisan rush toward tax reductions has become the tastiest fiscal morsel ever offered the American people. As we watch, helplessly, while the new minority Democrats try to outdo the new Republican majority in Congress, the more cautious among us should recognize that what our politicians declare is possible is really impossible. It ' s all fantasy . This rebuke is not political as such, but statistical.

Spokesmen for the GOP contract and for the White House as well, promise lower taxes alongside cuts in spending, and eventually an even-up balancing of the budget. All of this can be accomplished, everyone is promising us, without even touching Social Security or undercutting other entitlements too badly. Presumably the defense budget will be kept nearly intact. And we can suppose that commitments will be honored -- military and civil service retirements, veterans' benefits, announced farm price supports, conservation reserve contracts and funded mandates to the states.

Approximate data for the 1994 budget year show a total spending of $1,480 billion. Of that $280 billion was national defense, $205 billion interest payments, $320 billion Social Security, $240 billion was income security and veterans ' benefits, and $230 billion was health and Medicare. All other functions of government added to $205 billion, which was also about the size of the 1994 deficit. If the promised $200 billion tax cut is made, all spending must be cut a fourth if the deficit is to be ended. No one honestly believes this is even probable, which is another way of saying it's impossible.

Jack Stapleton is a Southeast Missourian columnist from Kennett who keeps tabs on Jefferson City.