MISSOURI COMMENTARY: THE UPS AND DOWNS OF CLINTON

President Clinton is on a roll. After languishing in the polls for a large part of this year, he has inched up to the point where in most of the country he has a positive approval rating. What has happened?

He fights for what he believes in. Clinton has been perceived as a wishy-washy accommodationist. The conventional wisdom was he is ever ready to back off any proposal and cut a deal. It is one thing to have the political instinct to know when to work out a compromise. It's another thing to appear to be overly eager to cave. Clinton has recently begun to curtail his rush to accommodate.

Medicare. Defending Medicare has been key to Clinton's fighting image. When the Republicans proposed $245 billion in tax cuts and $270 billion in cuts in the anticipated increases in Medicare, they gave Clinton and the Democrats in Congress the political ammunition they needed. A case can be made that senior citizens are the most politically attentive sector of the American electorate. They intensely follow issues pertaining to their well-being and Medicare is at the top of the list. Thus far, Clinton and the Democrats are winning the Medicare war.

Maturity. Clinton has shed his eager-beaver, high school valedictorian image. The inexperience -- both his and that of his staff - has been reduced by the normal maturation process. There's no question that Clinton has an awkward transition from governor of tiny Arkansas to president of the United States. In some of his more introspective interviews, he admits as much.

Gingrich. Senator Bob Dole may well be the likely Republican presidential nominee, but for now in the public's mind the choice is between Speaker Newt Gingrich and Clinton. The president wins this comparison test hands down. The curse of immaturity that once beset Clinton is the same curse that is hurting Gingrich.

Gingrich has succeeded with much of his Contract With America, but he has not succeeded in positively presenting himself to the country at large. He may be the poster boy of the devout right, but he doesn't set well with the citizenry as a whole. As long as he is front and center as the Republican spokesman, Clinton succeeds politically by simple comparison.

Foreign policy. During the 1992 campaign, Clinton put foreign policy on the back burner. "It's the economy, stupid" was the theme of the campaign. He mad a dutiful foreign policy speech here and there -- enough to show that he was aware of the fundamental problems.

Again, the difficulty in making the change from Little Rock to Washington was evident in his early foreign policy pronouncements. Uncertainty has been replaced of late with a sense of confidence. Clinton's recent hopscotch tour across Europe was an unqualified success.

It was inevitable that Clinton would warm up to foreign policy. Some presidents are elected with a foreign policy tilt (e.g., Carter, Reagan and Clinton.) Whatever the inclination going into office, over time all modern presidents become fascinated, almost absorbed, with the power of being the leader of the free world. With daily briefings on events around the world, with calls from world leaders, a president develops an irresistible interest in foreign affairs. Budgets, taxes and other domestic matters have to be shared with Congress. Foreign policy is the president's prerogative -- and the president's alone.

Clinton's efforts in the Middle East, Haiti and Northern Ireland can, so far, be classified as successful. A heretofore mushy policy on Bosnia was turned into an aggressive effort to fashion some kind of peace in that tormented country.

Of course, some of these current successes cold instantly vanish from the achievement list. The Middle East is by no means fully resolved. Haiti will never be fully resolved. Northern Ireland is always unpredictable.

Most dangerous of all to Clinton's political well-being is the military mission in Bosnia. An uneasy American public can switch to being an antagonistic American public if an unacceptable number of body bags come back to the United States. The "exit" circumstances from Bosnia are still necessarily ambiguous and will continue to be shrouded with political danger.

Pleased as he may be with his political picture at year's end, Clinton realizes that 1996 is the true test. The American electorate is perhaps more volatile than at any other time in recent memory. A political figure can quickly move from esteem to antagonism, from success to failure. No one better knows the ups and downs of politics than Bill Clinton.

~Tom Eagleton of St. Louis is a former U.S. senator from Missouri.