MEDICARE URGENCY

The urgency about the future of Medicare was increased earlier this month when the federal health-care program for the elderly was shown to have spent -- unexpectedly -- more money last year than it took in.

Much of the current budget standoff in Washington has been fueled by the Medicare debate. Until these most recent figures were released, both the budget-cutting Republicans and the White House were in agreement that Medicare surpluses would vanish by the year 2002 unless appropriate fiscal measures were taken.

The 1995 experience, however, sharpens the likelihood that the Medicare funds could be in jeopardy well before 2002. Last year's preliminary figure show that Medicare took in $35.7 million less than it spent. The Medicare trust fund still has a surplus of nearly $130 billion, but the trend toward eating up the surplus as America's population ages seems to be accelerating much faster than previously anticipated.

The Clinton administration had estimated that the Medicare fund surplus would actually grow in 1994 by some $4.7 billion. The turnaround is considered by some budget analysts as an example of the faulty projections the White House is using in its proposals for balancing the budget over the next seven years.

Given the experience of the Medicare fund, there can be little doubt that the Republican hue and cry over future federal spending has been more than warranted. Even without the latest figures, the need to reduce runaway government programs was very real indeed. Now the push to balance the budget will be even more difficult.

Meanwhile, the Clinton administration continues to portray Republican efforts to bring Medicare spending and other government programs into line by calling them "cuts." There were never any cuts, only smaller increases. Even budget-minded Republicans have seen the need for growing Medicare spending as baby boomers become eligible for the medical benefits. But these latest figures will no doubt give pause to even the most conservative fiscal planning.