Forty years ago this month, President Harry Truman declared a state of emergency because of the dangers of Communist imperialism. Today there isn't such an animal. Instead, President-elect Bill Clinton declared his version of a domestic state of emergency when he invited 100 people big shots and little shots to Little Rock to discuss what's wrong with the American economy and how to cure it.
There was something close to consensus on the what's-wrong part. The economy is recovering very slowly, but it is a jobless recovery. As a nation, we need to increase our productivity and need to have a trained workforce capable of competing in a sophisticated, highly competitive trading world. Our products have to be the products of tomorrow. Yesterday's glory won't hack it take a look at G.M. and I.B.M.
The economy needs a short-term stimulus. Tinkering with the tax code, with things like investment and R & D tax credits, might help a bit. Some public work projects that actually mean something and that can get started quickly would also help.
Health care costs are an ever increasing drag on the economy. Clinton virtually declared health care costs to be public enemy #1. Some of the business leaders chimed in. Harold Poling, CEO of Ford, pointed out that health costs put his company at a $500 per car disadvantage in competing with Japanese auto makers.
The budget deficit is a pernicious "disease" that will not go away by inattention. Henry Aaron of the Brookings Institution put it this way: "If the federal deficit remains just an abstraction, a number too large for human comprehension, a quantity that floats unconnected with human loss and frustration that it inevitable causes, we are never effectively going to deal with it."
The what-to-do-about-it part didn't come as easily. Consensus on specific items disappeared. On the question of stimulus, the economists could not agree on whether there should be a massive dose or a mild dose.
As to the astronomical budget deficit, everyone was against it in principle. Everyone is always against the budget deficit in principle. It is the specifics of reducing that deficit that generate political paralysis.
Can you stimulate the economy and cut the budget at the same time? Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt, at times in their careers, espoused that notion. Daunting as the budget deficit is, fighting it immediately before the economy recovers would court disaster.
Yet a new president has but a few months of post-inaugural popularity to push for the political unpleasantness in budget cutting. As Leon Panetta, the incoming Budget Director, puts it: "Congress loves to pass the sugar, but hates to deal with the vinegar, which is the deficit part of it." While he is still popular and has the political clout that goes with the popularity, Clinton has to lock in legislatively a series of budget cuts to be triggered at such time as the economy has recovered.
D-day is upon him. He has to move quickly and decisively from day one of his presidency. On economic issues, Congress is never a creative self-starter. Clinton's capacity to lead will be tested the minute the inaugural parades and dances are over. The economic future of America is his state of emergency.
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