BOSNIA TRAGEDY SHOULDN'T BECOME TRAGEDY OF U.S.

Just in case there are any hopes, the Serbs' rejection of the Vance-Owen Peace Plan and the outbreak of hostilities among former allies, Bosnian Muslims and Croats, should dash any such hopes for a peaceful settlement to the Bosnian Civil War. This comes as no surprise to those familiar with the region's history.

The history of the Balkans has been characterized by wars of conquest and repression, of political intrigue and envy, of bloody reprisals and counter reprisals. The senseless, perpetual cycle of violence and turmoil, and its accompanying grief and ever-present misery in the Balkans, gives new meaning to the song, "Land of Confusion."

The ethnic hatreds, religious rivalries, language barriers, and cultural conflicts among the various factions date back to the region's first identifiable peoples: Illyrian-speaking tribes in present-day Macedonia, Thracian-speaking peoples in the area of modern Serbia, and the Veneti in present-day Slovenia and northwest Croatia. Throughout history, whenever one group acquired political or military primacy, that group in turn subjugated the other groups. During Turkish rule, the Slavic Muslim aristocracy exploited its Christian serfs for centuries. During WWII, Croat fascists inflicted ferocious massacres against Muslims and Serbians. At present, the Serbian army has taken three-quarters of Bosnia with little intention of giving back any land.

To put it simply, there are no "good guys" in Bosnia. Inevitably, this is the state of affairs in a region with no experience in democratic federalism (power sharing) and with no tradition of political compromise. Current events should make it clear that the Bosnian Civil War will not be settled by high-minded concepts of love and peace voiced by outsiders or peace treaties imposed by members of the United Nations Security Council. Given that all parties involved in the conflict are blinded by their short-sighted hatred for one another, this conflict will only be settled the old-fashioned (albeit barbaric) way -with blood and steel.

In the face of hard reality, there is little, if any, role in Bosnia for the United States. America must resist the rush and urge to "do something;" it should not provide troops or any other military support for the proposed "safe haven" policy. Any U.S. involvement will only serve to drag the U.S. down the slippery slope toward a military quagmire with the resultant loss of American lives for no clear reason. Instead, the U.S. should push for, and, if necessary, unilaterally stop its enforcement of any arms embargoes, and let the events in the Balkans run their natural course. Even if the worst case scenario were to occur (the Bosnian Civil War spreads into other countries), the scope of the conflict would only be regional.

It is a tragedy of the human experience that, sometimes, disputes are eventually settled only after the loss of life. In this particular case, let us make sure it does not involve American lives.