Recessions, if they go deep enough and last long enough, are likely to bring out the worst in politics. This is most certainly so today in Europe. In comparison to the continental talent of contemporary times, Stanley Baldwin and Edouard Deladier begin to take on a belated afterglow.
In London, John Major stumbles from crisis to crisis without the confidence of his people and with the declining support of his own Conservative Party. Each new budget proclaims that "recovery is around the corner," but Britain never seems to get near the corner, much less around it. The Tories remain divided on how deeply to involve Britain in the intricacies of the European Community. The ghost of Margaret Thatcher lurks in the wings as an annoyance to the quiescent Major.
In Paris, Francois Mitterrand has endured long enough to become the most distrusted French politician since World War II. Herbert Hoover was beloved in comparison. Mitterrand will linger as a moribund President for two more years while conservatives feud over successor rights.
In Bonn, the reconstruction of the erstwhile Communist territories bedevils Helmut Kohl. Germany's public deficits, federal and state, exceed those of the United States as a percentage of GNP. Unrest, both economic and social, is pervasive in the east. The anticipated glory of reunification has taken its toll on the once all-powerful German economy and psyche. There's no easy relief in sight.
In Rome, it's anarchy under a democratic facade. A crook of the day is found in the highest echelons of government. In contemporary times, Italy has been a nation of little political cohesion, now it's a nation of no political cohesion.
In Spain, once seemingly immune from the European recession, the GNP goes negative and the trade deficit goes even more negative. The spirit of Barcelona's Olympics and Seville's Expos has faded. So, too, has the once happy touch of Felipe Gonzalez's Socialist government. He has the makings of an Iberian Mitterrand.
Last, and obviously not the least, is the painful ordeal of democracy in Russia. Rigor mortis may not be setting in, but the patient is breathing heavily. Boris Yeltsin has been cornered by his parliament and beaten back at every turn. In order to save democracy, he threatened to rule by decree and bypass the legislature with a plebiscite. These tactics would be considered dictatorial in a society with strong democratic values, but in a nascent democracy almost anything goes, short of bloodshed, in the name of achieving the greater good.
The dilapidated Soviet economy would crush even a brilliant hero. Yeltsin had the courage to mount the tank and face down the coup, but he lacked the wisdom and the time to develop a political base. It's one thing to have a democratic vision, but it's another to marshal the political skill to implement it.
These are the dog days on the continent. Every nation is in a funk. Strident nationalism crowds out tolerance and patience. Today's Europe has much to fear, including fear itself.
Like all U.S. Presidents, President Clinton is the leader of the free world, but he leads a tribe of hapless Lilliputians. Excessions attack the foundations of democratic determination and turn well intentioned politicians into indecisive bumblers. Clinton has his hands full at home and has no effective allies in Europe. As the leader of the free world, he captains the grateful dead.
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