CAPE GIRARDEAU NEWS GUARDIAN: CENSUS FIGURES REVEAL SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN CAPE GIRARDEAU

The second-round census figures are in. There is no change in the direction indicated by the 1990 count of Cape Girardeau's population. The U.S. Census Bureau says the city has lost about 200 people since 1980.

What makes this so fascinating is that City Manager J. Ronald Fischer hired someone to make sure there would be an accurate count. At a July meeting to celebrate the "successful" conclusion of the census count, this official, Melvin Gateley, spoke proudly of working hand in hand with the Census Bureau to ensure an accurate count. Fischer can't win. Either his staff didn't work closely enough with the census bureau to ensure an accurate count or the city is actually losing population. Either way the city manager has to assume a large share of the blame.

Several answers should be forthcoming from Fischer at this time. If the census is wrong, does that mean the city mishandled its liaison? If the census is correct is it possible past city policies are driving people away from the city?

I have repeatedly invited Fischer to be a guest on my morning talk show. He has declined each invitation. Is he trying to duck the hard questions that might come up during a live interview?

City officials and community leaders, such as Fischer, Chamber of Commerce President Robert Hendrix and Southeast Missourian Publisher Gary Rust have generally reacted with disbelief to the census numbers. No one is recalling what Gateley said just a few months ago. Like the Orwellian world of 1984, Gateley and his liaison with the Census Bureau must be forgotten because they no longer fit the scheme of things. "The census bureau is wrong, it has always been wrong," our leaders tell us. They say the figures are wrong, the count is in error. This statement ignores the $8700 paid to Gateley to make sure the count was accurate. Did we get our money's worth of cooperation with the Census Bureau? Or are our city officials miffed because we are getting less than we "paid for"?

While the census figures show Cape losing people, Missouri, as a whole, increased in population, as did Cape County. But a study of the Missouri population shows that the gain was due to the numbers of babies being born in the state, not to an influx of new residents.

The Southeast Missourian Newspaper recently editorialized that in its view, retail sales figures suggest the census figures are wrong. I do not believe this is true. Inflation could account for most of the increase from $295.8 million in 1980 to more than $598 million in sales in Cape Girardeau County in 1989. An average 4.7 per cent inflation rate between 1980 and 1989 would account for $151 million of the $302.2 million increase in sales recorded in Cape County. This 4.7 per cent of real growth in retail sales includes the development of the West Park Mall, which attracts shoppers from a wide region, not just the city limits of Cape Girardeau.

Our leaders also point to the increase in the population of Cape County and say, "since the county's population is up, the city of Cape Girardeau count must also rise." This is faulty logic. Besides, the Cape County population increased by only 2,542. The increase in the population of the city of Jackson accounts for more than half of that.

There is a reason why our city leaders are scrambling to find a mistake in the census bureau's figures. Their reputations are at stake. You'll hear a lot about industrial recruitment being hurt by the census figures, but the real hurt is being felt by the city's leaders who created the policies which have resulted in the population decline. Our civic leaders do not want to admit that perhaps they did something wrong over the past ten years, that they may have driven residents away from the city.

If this community has ceased to grow, then our leaders' attitudes must change, or we may have to change the leaders.

City Planner Kent Bratton, wrote in the 1987 Cape Girardeau Comprehensive Plan that based on past growth patterns, the city's population should have been between 37,797 and 43,042 by 1990. Why it isn't is the answer that Cape's leaders must come up with.

Not far away, in Northeast Arkansas is the city of Jonesboro. In 1970, Jonesboro had a population of 27,050; Cape's population was 31,282. Cape was still ahead in 1980, 34,361 to Jonesboro's 31,530. But the 1990 census gives Jonesboro 50,287, while Cape gets 34,167. What does Jonesboro have that Cape doesn't? A well-planned industrial park with all utilities for one thing. Cape's airport industrial area doesn't even have fresh drinking water. Jonesboro also benefits from a state right-to-work law. Jonesboro doesn't have some of the advantages that Cape has, such as an interstate highway or a river, but that community far outstripped Cape in growth during the 80s.

The second round figures are in. They repeat the same story told by the first-round figures. Let's stop the whining and start looking at the problem.

When the thermometer shows you have a temperature of 104 degrees, you don't throw out that thermometer and try another. You get in bed and start the healing process.

The loss of population in Cape Girardeau is a symptom of a problem. It might be an indicator that the present leadership in this community is steering the city in the wrong direction. It might be evidence that malaise has set in. There can be no doubt that the 1990 census is a warning that must be heeded before it is too late.

The census figures tell us there is a problem. The proper reaction to the figures is to make sure they are as accurate as can be, and then, deal with the problems that the figures alert us to.

I believe the Cape Girardeau City Council needs to address the declining population problem immediately. I would suggest the following:

Appoint a citizens commission to research the population problem immediately. This commission should be tasked to find out why people are leaving the city, where they are going and what they are getting from their new homes which Cape Girardeau could not provide. The commission might want to interview people who have relocated to homes just outside the city limits to find out what prompted these moves.

The commission should also examine the school systems in Cape Girardeau and surrounding cities to determine if schools are a factor in the movement of people from the area. Industries should also be contacted. The Chamber of Commerce, Regional Commerce and Growth Association and like organizations also should be included. Organizations such as the area homebuilders association should also be a part of both the investigation and action stages. There are doubtless other avenues which the commission could follow in trying to find the reasons for the negative growth.

Once the study has been completed, a series of recommendations should be made to the city council concerning concrete actions that could be taken to bring the growth rate back to a healthy level. City hall has to determine for itself, whether it has been an impediment to construction and growth in our city, as some are suggesting, or if it acts in the best interest of its citizens by requiring builders to adhere to strict construction codes. If certain regulations are driving business away, then they should be examined.

If it is true that city hall is making promises it does not keep, such as the Minnesota Avenue extension to Southern Expressway, which I understand was promised to the Dana Corporation, but was not constructed; that practice must be halted.

I believe one area needing attention is industrial recruitment. The loss of jobs represented by the departure of such firms as Bunny Bread, ABF, and others could explain why the city is failing to thrive. While we have had some new jobs come to the community, most of these are of the minimum income service industry jobs. These jobs do not provide the income for growing families and growing cities.

The effort to reverse what is apparently a downward trend in city population must be given a first priority by our elected and appointed officials. The city council should consider possible economic development impacts when considering new legislation and regulations.

When I first arrived in Cape Girardeau four years ago I was struck by its commercial vitality compared to other cities I have lived in. I am concerned now that the census figures may signal that Cape Girardeau's "golden days" are behind us. I sincerely hope and pray that they are not.