Cape police using data-driven approach to address crime

From baseball diamonds to research labs, number crunching and analytics is everywhere.

The data collected from past events may seem random to some, but when scrutinized by the right eyes in the right setting, they can be predictors of future events.

That’s why many MLB teams will defend hitters with shifts, why medical data collected can find certain individuals at high risk, and why the Cape Girardeau Police Department soon may be employing its forces more efficiently and possibly solving perplexing crimes.

The department recently created the position of crime analyst and filled it with Cpl. Ryan Droege, a six-year veteran of the department, whom police chief Wes Blair termed “scary smart.” Droege will be crunching numbers and trying to arrive at productive assessments.

“[It’s] looking for connections that might have been missed somewhere else or looking for any sort of pattern or any information of value,” Droege told Southeast Missourian reporter Tyler Graef. “It’s a burgeoning field in the law-enforcement sector.”

A keen eye at the numbers and details, with a light applied, can reveal tendencies and patterns. He’s already identified patterns involved in one fire since being appointed to the position in April.

Ideally, crimes could be prevented or criminals apprehended through decisions — better deployment of manpower at particular times and places — based on data instead of assumptions.

There is no certainty in crime, but the randomness can be reduced. “It’s better than 50-50,” Droege said about the effectiveness of a prediction by a good crime analyst. “You know, you get about 68 percent probability that it’s going to happen within this sector, within this date range, within this time range, is about as close as we can get.”

Crime is never going to be eliminated. There’s thousands of years of data to back that up. However, it’s reassuring to know we’re using that data going forward.